Has Abiy Ahmed Failed Ethiopia?

Robert Cole

Ethiopia once again finds itself at a crossroads. President Abiy Ahmed’s selection in 2018 to the top job appeared to signal a new day for the country, which has long suffered under undemocratic regimes imposed by elites and foreign interests. On assuming office, he made headlines by releasing political prisoners, removing press restrictions, and seeking peace with Eritrea, Ethiopia’s neighbor and long-time enemy to the northeast. Many pundits hailed Ahmed as Ethiopia’s saving grace, and he won the Nobel Peace Prize the following year. However, the honeymoon period ended swiftly as reality came crashing in. 

Reconciliation with Eritrea, for which the Nobel prize was awarded, is still not achieved. The Afwerki government in Eritrea has a well-earned reputation of brutality toward any threats to its supremacy and has been slow to open the country up to Ethiopians. In Ethiopia, the peace process has generated a serious internal crisis. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has gone to war with the government in part over the Eritrean peace process, which it largely opposes. The conflict has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths in the span of only a few months and a further half million people driven from their homes. This internal crisis has fueled serious external threats to Ethiopia on just about every side. According to US intelligence services, Eritrean forces have crossed into Tigray to fight the TPLF and have busied themselves in committing a range of atrocities against the local population. To the north and west, border disputes with Sudan have seen a marked uptick, resulting in armed conflict between local militias and regular troops from both sides. These tensions are likely being stoked by Egypt, which opposes the construction of a dam on the Blue Nile, which flows through Ethiopia on its way to Egypt. Egypt sees the dam as an existential threat to its water supply and is seeking ways to weaken Ethiopian resolve to complete the project. To the south and east, Somalia remains embroiled in internal conflict and constitutional crisis, and without Ethiopian military aid in maintaining stability, could rapidly devolve into lawlessness again. Within the country, both the Amhara and Oromo peoples continue to agitate against Ahmed’s desire to centralize authority, which they see as threatening their local autonomy, though neither group has confronted the government as violently as the Tigray. 

Simply reading this grocery list of conflicts makes one’s head spin. Given President Ahmed’s tenure marking the worsening of most of these issues, one is left asking if the man himself is to blame. Have his efforts to democratize and modernize the country shaken things up too much? The answer is more complex than simply yes or no. In seeking peace with Eritrea and greater access for Oromo peoples into the government, he naturally alienated Tigrayan interests, which had long held sway over the government. Not doing so would have created similar conflict with the Oromo, who have long chafed against outside domination. Conflict with Egypt feels similarly predestined. Egypt has long claimed the sole right to veto any infrastructure on the Nile, even the sizable portions in other sovereign states. Perhaps then the critique should not be with the direction of Ahmed’s actions but rather with their scope. The scale of the offensive in Tigray and the lack of transparency about what is happening there by the government in Addis Ababa will only serve future conflict, and will not engender any pro-government sentiment in the region. Undeniably Ahmed had to intervene and could not tolerate a naked power grab by an ethnic insurgency, but more precise targeting of its leaders could have forestalled so much bloodshed. Conflict over the Nile is certainly not a new issue, but taking such a hard line during a moment when the country can ill afford new conflicts may cost more than it gains. At the end of the day, Ahmed is neither an unmitigated success nor an abject failure. Going forward, one can only hope he learns from the current position of his country and seeks to live up to the ideals of his Nobel prize.