Open War Returns to Ethiopia
Robert Cole
At the end of August, open conflict returned to the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia and surrounding areas. The fighting broke off a five month long ceasefire between Tigrayan forces, known as the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and government forces loyal to the government of President Abiy Ahmed. While the return of open war is most certainly a tragedy for civilians on both sides, many in the Tigray region were living on the brink of starvation even during the ceasefire.
The causes of the famine are manifold, ranging from a series of drought-induced poor harvests to the impact of the war in Ukraine on international grain prices, but most significantly the inability of international aid to reach those in need in Tigray. The TPLF and Ethiopian government both accuse the other of blocking deliveries of aid to civilians in need. What little aid does make it in is difficult to distribute due to a massive fuel shortage in Tigray thanks to an Ethiopian blockade, with what little is available frequently seized by the TPLF for its own use.
As I noted almost a year ago on this blog, the conflict in Ethiopia represents a direct threat to the stability of the region. Ethiopia has long served as a critical pillar of stability, particularly with regard to Somalia, leading the effort to expel al-Shabaab from Mogadishu in 2006. Indeed, with Ethiopian attention focused on the north, al-Shabaab has stepped up its activities in recent weeks, besieging a hotel in downtown Mogadishu on August 19 and destroying famine relief convoys late last week, killing over a dozen civilians in each instance. The war also represents an opportunity for other regional actors such as Egypt, Sudan, and Eritrea to get involved and escalate the conflict for their own purposes. Eritrea is already deeply involved in the conflict, seeking to settle old scores with the TPLF.
Actors outside of the region are also weighing in. The US has, in typical fashion, condemned the war crimes committed by both sides and the recent return to fighting. China and Russia have passed no such judgment, allowing for smoother relations, particularly with the Ethiopian government. Russia in particular has long enjoyed good relations with Eritrea, the regimes of both countries being some of the only states in the world to whole-heartedly endorse the other’s brutality. In combination with its need for military equipment, this has led Ethiopia to increasingly enter into the Russian orbit, notably abstaining from the UN vote condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has an interest in a continued conflict in the region which creates buyers for its weapons and partners in opposing the US and its allies.
Continued fighting only benefits bad actors like Eritrea, Russia, and al-Shabaab. Yet the road to peace will not be an easy one. Too many have been killed and too much has been destroyed on both sides in what was already a fragile region for peace to prevail overnight. While conflict still rages in higher-profile theaters like Ukraine, the war in Ethiopia has the potential to be just as impactful on world affairs if it is not prioritized. Let us hope cooler heads can be prevailed upon to make the next ceasefire permanent.