The Coup that Never Happened
Robert Cole
This past week has been a busy one for international news. From Italian elections to protests in Iran to a major United Nations summit, there has been no shortage of history-defining moments. On September 25 however, a potentially far larger story began circulating on social media. Rumors spread that a coup was underway in Beijing, with Xi Jinping under arrest and PLA convoys rolling through the city. Over the subsequent days however, it became readily apparent that no such coup had occurred, and the rumors began to die down without any new evidence to support them. What happened, and what does it say about the state of China today?
Hysterical online rumors within niche communities on their own are hardly new. Indeed, conspiracy theories such as QAnon have become entrenched in political discourse in nearly every country on earth. However, all viral rumors burst onto the scene for a reason, typically appearing during turbulent political moments and containing a large enough kernel of truth to suck in readers who might otherwise ignore them. In this case, the major catalysts are fairly obvious. China is set to hold its 20th Communist Party Congress in less than a month, the meeting of major party leaders that is the closest thing to national elections the one-party state has. This party congress is by all accounts a momentous one, with many analysts predicting President Xi Jinping will obtain a third term and solidify his control over the party. Some expect he may even seek to become Communist Party Chairman, a title that has not been held since the death of Mao.
It also came days after former Justice Minister Fu Zhenghua was sentenced to death for corruption, though his trial also included accusations of disloyalty to President Xi and participation in a political clique connected to Sun Lijun, who the Chinese government has accused of fomenting opposition to party leadership and who has also received a death sentence. While both sentences will likely be commuted to life in prison, the verdict made for a dramatic headline and sent a clear message to Xi’s political opponents ahead of the party congress.
It also speaks to China’s handling of covid-19. While nearly every other country lifts restrictions, China has retained a strict zero-covid policy, locking down entire cities where cases appear, most notably in Shanghai earlier this summer. One of the major sources of evidence those claiming a coup was underway pointed to was the sudden grounding of thousands of flights out of Beijing. While it remains unclear if this was a covid measure, a precaution ahead of a military exercise, or something else entirely, the measure would be in keeping with the government’s covid strategy. In one bizarre instance, patrons at a Shanghai Ikea store fought their way out of the building after authorities attempted to quarantine them inside due to a customer coming in contact with a covid case.
Where these rumors originated also speaks volumes. The story appears to have originated on Indian social media and was promoted by traditionally anti-Beijing outlets such as the Epoch Times. It could indicate a degree of anti-China sentiment as tensions remain over the India-China border, the source of angst between the two nations. Additionally, the nature of Chinese media censorship makes it hard to get complete and accurate information on events that do not reflect well on the government, making it plausible that information would be short in the case of a real coup. China’s adversaries abroad benefit from spreading uncertainty through stories like this, and ironically the domestic censorship system benefits them as much as the reverse.