1,455 Days Later

By Joshua O’Brien

It seems natural, as I read polls and election news over my morning coffee, to remember the state of the world four years ago. That world, and that race, seem so far away.

Back in 2016, the economy was good, but not great. The recovery from the Great Recession was slow, especially following the 2010 turn to austerity politics in the European Union, and debt policies in America. But by 2016 the Recession seemed to be behind us, and things were improving. At least on the macro level. Many still suffer from a decline in real buying power, and that has not changed much for the better in the last four years. And I suspect that if there was not a pandemic, the economic discourse in 2020 would be similar to 2016.

The outlook of international relations has changed, somewhat. In 2016, the United States was especially fixated on terrorism. The Islamic State had earlier gained control of swaths of land in the Levant, and inspired attacks in Paris, Brussels, and San Bernardino. Today, the Islamic State still exists, but holds no territory and has fallen out of the public mind, for the most part. Additionally, the Iran Nuclear Deal has fallen out of the mainstream dialogue, following President Trump’s withdrawal from the deal. Other issues of international relations from 2016 remain. Brexit is still ongoing, and sharp language from American politicians regarding China has coalesced into more aggressive policy and thoughts towards China inside of the United States. This includes the trade war begun in 2018.

In other regards, we are in a very different place. American standing with traditional North Atlantic allies has diminished in recent years due to the policies and rhetoric of President Trump. Global efforts to address the increasingly existential threat of climate change have also been reversed, as have trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Of course, all of these issues feel far away in the middle of the pandemic. While the 2016 election took place amongst relatively normal times, if increasingly dark in tone, the 2020 election is occurring in the midst of an economic downturn attached to the worst respiratory disease outbreak in 100 years. It’s a dramatic shift in political climate and shows just how much can change—domestically and abroad—in four years. It also reminds me that elections, in America and the world, can affect the international political scene for years. I’m going to be thinking about that, along with so much else, sitting alone in front of my television on Tuesday night.