20 Years Later
Joshua O’Brien
On October 7, 2001, the U.S. and its allies launched Operation Enduring Freedom—the invasion of Afghanistan. By the year’s end, the Taliban government had been disposed of. Since then, the war continues as a counterinsurgency operation to prevent a resurgence in terrorism and support the Afghan government against Taliban insurgents. Last week, President Biden announced that 20 years after the attack that launched the war, American forces would be withdrawn from the country.
The end of the war in Afghanistan naturally brings reflection on the last twenty years of American foreign policy. What are the goals of keeping forces in Afghanistan? Is it counter terrorism, to protect the homeland from a future attack? Is it a state-building mission in Kabul? I think that the inability to decisively answer these questions informed the decision to withdraw. But if we take those as the objectives of American military presence in Afghanistan, we need to ask: how will this decision affect them?
On matters of counterterrorism, I cannot come to a firm conclusion. American intelligence capabilities will be diminished, making it harder to predict and address threats. But whether a new or existing terror network is able to strengthen is going to depend on several factors, such as the political climate in Afghanistan post-withdrawal, the organizational capabilities of leaders on the ground, etc. The latter has fairly simple conclusions: al-Qaeda does not exist in the organizational capacity it did under bin-Laden. Any competent network will likely take time to reorganize, to the best of my knowledge.
On matters of state building, I have a better idea. It has always been my belief that state building missions in Afghanistan and Iraq were doomed to failure. First, these wars were not conceived with a mind for democratic rehabilitation or stability. They were reactions to terrorist attacks, poorly calibrated to reach the non-state actors responsible. Simply, the motives, means, and political will to take the time to install a government in Kabul were not there. Moreover, it does not seem entirely reasonable to me to think that a democratic government can be brought about successfully by invasion and imposition. Whether the Afghan Government survives is uncertain, but it seems certain that the Taliban will regain significant power, and quite possibly, the country. Whatever happens on this front affects the issue of terror once more and leaves the issue uncertain.
So, what does America have to show for 20 years of war? An uncertain legacy, an uncertain future, and uncertain objectives. In a graveyard of empires, now rests the 21st century imperial objectives of America.