Four Years Later: Where things stand in Ukraine, and what comes next?

On February 24, 2022, Russian troops officially launched the bloodiest war in Europe since the Second World War. More than four years later, the war still rages both on land, at sea, in the air, and through digital means. This invasion was hardly a surprise to western intelligence agencies, who knew with high certainty that Russia would launch a full-scale invasion months prior. What did surprise both Russian and Western governments was how long Ukraine has survived, and in some cases launched successful attacks into Russian territory. Before the war, it was projected that Kyiv would fall within a matter of days, yet four years later, it's still standing. The war has also shaken many European countries to the core. In addition to the humanitarian aspect of taking in Ukrainian refugees, the war has drastically changed the perceived security situation on the continent, especially those adjacent to the Russian Federation. Inside Ukraine, there have been certain adjustments as daily life attempts to adapt to the new normal in the country. 

Throughout the country, particularly this past winter, rolling blackouts and heating shortages have plagued the country, especially in Kyiv. Russian attacks on energy infrastructure combined with Ukraine’s coldest winter in a decade have left millions freezing in their homes. However, on this front, there is light at the end of the tunnel. As spring arrives and temperatures rise, demand will ease for electricity and heating. In terms of the war front, however, Russia’s slow crawl is advancing. Despite some Ukrainian advances in 2025, Russia has gained some territory in Eastern Ukraine, as well as making incursions close to major cities like Kharkiv and Sumy. These gains, however, are negligible in comparison to the resources that Russia has had to use. Casualty estimates for the Russian Federation are roughly at 1.2 million (deaths, injuries, unaccounted), with deaths alone reaching 320,000 in some estimates. Ukrainian casualties are estimated to be less than half that number, somewhere between 500,000-600,000. This estimated 2-2.5:1 casualty ratio is indicative of a larger trap that both nations find themselves in. Ukraine appears determined to keep defending itself, and Russia is likely to keep digging into the costly stalemate it has created. This will continue either until Putin is pushed out, or until Moscow can extract a postwar outcome in Ukraine that it can frame as a victory. 

There is another factor that is worth mentioning, though it is difficult to predict how it will affect the war from this point on. Donald Trump. About a year ago, the infamous Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance meltdown occurred, and it seemed certain that the U.S. was going to abandon Ukraine. Trump’s rhetoric in relation to Putin and Russia has shifted back and forth, but progress is seemingly moving slowly. Meanwhile, U.S. engagements in Venezuela, and most recently Iran, have signaled a pivot away from Ukraine and Europe as a whole. As the situation continues to deteriorate in the Middle East, in addition to increasing risk of a total political and economic meltdown in Cuba, the pivot from Europe will likely continue. 

Four years on, the war in Ukraine has drastically changed life both in Ukraine, Russia, and the world at large. As Ukrainians continue to stay resilient in the face of Russian aggression, one thing is clear. Ukraine is still standing, not because the war has become normal, but because Ukrainians refused to let it. Four years in, the fighting continues. But so does the choice facing the rest of the world: whether to treat this conflict as background noise, or as the defining security challenge of our time.