Why Pakistan and Afghanistan Are Sliding Toward “Open War”
Pakistan’s defense minister’s recent announcement of “open war” against Afghanistan’s Taliban government marks one of the most serious escalations between the two neighbors since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. In late February, Pakistan launched airstrikes on major cities in Afghanistan, including Kabul and Kandahar, as well as Taliban military sites, alleging the Taliban government has been allowing militants to launch attacks into Pakistan from across the border.
Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harboring groups such as Tereek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatist organizations, which Pakistan says contributed to a 34% increase in terrorist attacks within the country in 2025. The Taliban has denied any involvement in these groups’ operations within Pakistan’s borders. Tensions between the two countries have also been fueled by other developments, including Pakistan’s forced repatriation of Afghan refugees, which has increased the number of people returning to Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s closing of the Afghan-Pakistan border in October, along with the suspension of trade. These actions have placed immense pressure on Afghanistan’s already stressed economy.
However, the roots of this conflict run deeper than those immediate disputes and tie back to broader regional tensions.
Pakistan and Afghanistan were previously allied. In the 1990s, Pakistan’s intelligence services helped create the Taliban. Pakistan maintained its support of the Taliban during the two decades of U.S. intervention in Afghanistan. However, when the Taliban took power in 2021, Pakistan saw an increase in militant violence, with rising terrorism-related deaths.
The recent declaration of open war follows a year of intensifying hostilities between the two countries since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. In October 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in almost two weeks of fighting before agreeing to a ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Turkey. However, the underlying issues that drove that conflict remain unresolved, particularly Pakistan’s accusations that Afghanistan is hosting militant groups that have engaged in attacks in Pakistan.
The recent conflict involving Iran further complicates the situation and reduces the likelihood of outside mediation. As a result, any meaningful move toward peace may depend largely on actions taken by Pakistan and Afghanistan themselves. International interest in mediating the dispute appears limited. Although previous tensions between the two countries have sometimes been mediated by Middle Eastern states, the instability created by the Iran conflict may draw those potential mediators into other regional priorities. The United States also appears unlikely to play a mediating role, with President Trump recently stating that “Pakistan is doing terrifically well.”
China, however, may get involved in mediating the conflict, as it has been attempting to increase its influence in the region. Peace between Afghanistan and Pakistan is vital to maintaining Chinese interests and investments in the region. Pakistan hosts the $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is key to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and China is expanding CPEC into Afghanistan. In August, China engaged in a three-way meeting with Afghanistan and Pakistan to strengthen trilateral security relations and economic cooperation. China has witnessed the increasing hostilities over the past year that threaten its security and economic ambitions. It may determine that a more direct role in the conflict is necessary to protect Chinese nationals working on infrastructure projects in both countries and to ensure that its economic goals are not disrupted.
At the same time, Pakistan is in a uniquely challenging position, facing tensions from numerous fronts. The conflict involving Iran, which shares a large border with Pakistan, may further destabilize Pakistan if violence spills over the border into Balochistan, potentially strengthening Baloch separatist movements and further fueling militant violence inside Pakistan. In addition, this past May, Pakistan engaged in its worst conflict with India in decades. As relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan began crumbling following the Taliban’s return to power, India began to develop a stronger relationship with the Taliban government, including reopening its embassy in Kabul in 2022.
Tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to rise, suggesting that cross-border clashes and airstrikes are unlikely to stop anytime soon. While neither side appears eager to engage in a full-scale war, the fundamental causes of the conflict remain unresolved. The potential absence of foreign mediation, the continued breakdown of ceasefire agreements, and the likelihood of ongoing militant violence in Pakistan suggest that Afghanistan and Pakistan may be headed toward a prolonged conflict.