Brazil Beats Bolsonaro?
From the 1960s to the early 1980s, Brazil and other South American countries were plagued by an era of military dictatorships responsible for thousands of tortures, killings, and disappearances of those they deemed “subversive” or against the junta. Following a democratic transition in the 1980s in these countries, each country’s courts attempted to issue trials for those deemed responsible for the state-sponsored terror.
The courts, while successful in some cases, let many perpetrators off the hook. The courts were marked by a culture of impunity due to a series of amnesty laws, such as one in 1979 Brazil, that allowed many military and political figures directly responsible to walk away with little consequence. This left much of civil society dissatisfied, and they attempted to fill in the gaps in justice to ensure some form of accountability to prevent future abuses. South America’s long struggle with accountability and impunity for military and political leaders remains important to today’s politics given recent events in Brazil.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro built his career on support and admiration for Brazil’s military dictatorship and further developed an agenda with echoes of “dictatorship nostalgia.” His presidency in 2018 was marked by pandemic skepticism, deforestation efforts, and the overall tone of conservative populist rhetoric seen recently in other countries.
Still, President Bolsonaro enjoys great support by many Brazilians and other leaders, including President Donald Trump. Given his popularity and Brazil’s history with political impunity, Bolsonaro’s recent conviction and subsequent sentencing on September 11th and 12th marked a surprising break from a political culture of impunity that defines not merely South America but much of the world when it comes to holding political leaders accountable for their actions.
Bolsonaro was sentenced by Brazil’s Supreme Court for his actions in 2022, when he attempted to stay in power after losing the presidential election to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. His failed attempt to stage a coup and overturn the election by disbanding courts and assassinating da Silva culminated in his house arrest in August 2025.
While the coup failed, his supporters did storm government buildings, causing property damage and chaos— reminiscent of the United States’s January 6th. His plans resemble those of past coups that led to the military dictatorships of the late 20th century, including a state of emergency to consolidate power in the hands of the executive.
On Thursday, four out of five justices voted to convict Bolsonaro and seven of his co-conspirators. His conviction is a landmark ruling, as fifteen coups and coup attempts since Brazilian independence in 1889 never culminated in a conviction of a leader of a plot. While Justice Luiz Fux acquitted the president of all charges, other justices noted the importance of the conviction. Justice Carmen Lucia described the case as a “meeting between Brazil and its past, its present, and its future” in reference to Brazil’s history of political impunity. His conviction is seen by many as a victory for democracy and a shift into a culture of accountability.
Before and after the court’s ruling, pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers and supporters have been pushing for amnesty, citing a similar sentiment to that of post-junta leadership in the 1980s-forgiveness that would help pacify a politically divided country. These supporters include US President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both outraged on social media at the result of the vote. Rubio described the verdict as “unjust” and threatened a US response to the “witch hunt.” Trump drew a comparison between himself and Bolsonaro, saying that what happened to Bolsonaro was “very much like what they tried to do with me.”
On Friday, September 12th, Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison. Whether he will actually go to jail, however, remains to be seen. His poor health has prevented him from attending the hearings, and his sentence could lead to an extension of his house arrest rather than jail time.
Despite his conviction and sentencing, it is likely that Bolsonaro’s political influence will live on given the extent of his national and global support. The country’s mixed public opinion over his conviction indicates the polarization within Brazilian politics. Similarly, the influence of Trump is a factor in the future of Brazilian politics. The sanctions imposed earlier this year on Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexander de Moraes, as well as his recent tariffs on Brazil, illustrates Trump’s outrage with the conviction of a friend and fellow leader. In response to the economic and verbal attacks, President da Silva remarked that his nation “will not accept anyone’s control,” rejecting their influence on Brazil’s economic and political landscape.
The conviction of Jair Bolsonaro breaks with historical precedent, despite much protest internally and externally against his conviction. The four justices who convicted and sentenced Bolsonaro represent a break from the culture of impunity and an attempt to address wrongdoing with legal justice. The US response to the conviction was expected given Trump’s relationship with Bolsonaro. Trump may decide to increase Brazil’s exposure to his tariffs, particularly if Bolsonaro receives jail time rather than remaining on house arrest. Breaking with historical and legal precedent, however, is no easy feat—the role of the justices in upholding Bolsonaro’s conviction was crucial in breaking a cycle developed during the age of military dictatorships, which marks a new step for justice even if foreign and domestic retaliation remain inevitable.