A Phoenix Rising: Indonesia’s Potential New President
February 14th is a day when people across the world express their love for one another. However, in Indonesia, people also expressed something else–their choice of who is the next leader of their country.
On February 14th, the world’s third-largest democracy elected its new president, Prabowo Subianto, the former defense minister with a history of human rights abuses. Subainato had been the popular favorite throughout the election. While the official results have not yet been announced, unofficial polling numbers show that Subianto has obtained about 55% of the votes.
These unofficial polling numbers and the Subainator’s overwhelming popularity indicate that he will likely be Indonesia’s next president. How did this happen? And the real question– what are the implications of this presidential election for Indonesia and the rest of the world?
How Did Subianto Do It?
Before diving into that, we must look at who will lead the world’s fourth-largest country by population. Subianto’s past is far from pristine. As the past commander of the Indonesian special forces during Indonesia’s authoritarian rule, he has been linked to numerous human rights violations. The most notable violation included the arrest of several student activists, many of whom are still missing to this day. His actions were condemned globally, and he was even banned from entering the United States until 2020 when he finally visited as Indonesia’s Defense Minister. Yet even then, many people were upset by his visit, explicitly citing his past human rights violations.
Now, he has managed to garner widespread popularity. There are two main sources of this. The first is choosing former President Joko Widodo’s son as his running mate. This rather controversial choice tied Subianto close to Widodo, who was very popular among the public. In a mutually beneficial move, Subianto utilized Widodo’s popularity to propel him through the polls, while Widodo established his political dynasty through his son, further cementing his political influence.
The second is the effective use of social media. Subianto has managed to drown out his dark past by focusing campaigning efforts on young voters. TikTok videos and Subianto’s beloved cat, Bobby, helped paint the former army leader as a “cuddly grandpa.” This use of social media paid off. Much of the younger generation, with no recollection of Subianto’s bloody past, supported him in the election. This case highlights the pivotal role that social media can play in rejuvenating a public image. Overall, some main aspects of Subianto’s campaign efforts seemed to have paid off, and his public popularity points towards him cinching the presidency. Yet, how does this bode for Indonesia and the rest of the world?
But What Will the Impacts Be?
Indonesia is a country of vast geopolitical importance, both economically and politically. As the third largest democracy in the world, it is also home to an abundance of natural resources, including nickel and palm oil, two globally sought-after commodities. Additionally, its growing importance in the Southeast makes it a crucial ally to both Chinese and US interests in the region. President Widodo managed to effectively walk the line of neutrality, and neither favored nor opposed either nation. Subianto, whose platform mostly consisted of continuing Widodo’s policies, will likely do the same. This policy of non-alignment has been very beneficial for Indonesia, with an increase in Chinese investments and US-Indonesia defense drills. However, the stance of non-alignment and Indonesia’s rise in global power is more of a concern for both the US and China, who seek to gain influence over the region.
So far, Subianto has promised to continue many of the policies put forth by Widodo, which would mean not much will change. He also pledged to focus on the country’s economic growth and implement programs aimed at helping the youth. However, in politics, nothing is ever guaranteed. Subianto’s dark past and known temper have caused concern over the nature of his policies. Analysts have expressed concern over his unpredictability as well as the potential for democratic backsliding. While there is evidence to support a bleak future, there is also a strong chance that he will continue to carry out the current policies that have been popular among the people. This outcome may not be as dire as people fear.
In the year of elections, Indonesia’s was certainly a big one. A former defense minister with a suspicious background could utilize strategic political alliances and the power of social media to lead him straight to the presidency. Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, Subianto turned around his political career and is close to securing the presidency. With the promise of continuing popular policies, Subianto could continue Indonesia on its path of economic growth, or his past connections to authoritarian rule could contribute to a democratic backslide. Yet one thing is certain: as Indonesia continues to grow and cement its place on the global stage, the world should pay attention to how its policies will impact the rest of the world.