As Washington dithers over Speaker, Germany leads on Ukraine, Israel issues
As Russia’s war in Ukraine rages on, with fighting recently passing the 600 day mark, much of the attention of Western governments has shifted to addressing the fallout from Hamas’ October 7 surprise attack on southern Israeli kibbutzim and the following Israeli retaliation. With violence in the West Bank increasing amid punishing Israeli airstrikes across Gaza and the potential for Lebanese Hezbollah to join the fight in the coming days, the leaders of the United States find themselves in an unenviable position of simultaneously addressing two major conflicts, a task made harder by the continued vacancy of the House of Representatives’ speaker seat. In the midst of the Middle East chaos and debates among American policymakers over the continued provision of funding to Ukraine, an unexpected leader on such issues has emerged: Germany.
Though Germany’s political leadership and military posture did not inspire confidence in its allies that it would stand by their side to actively oppose Russia during the leadup to Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the nation’s actions since full-scale war broke out in Europe have departed from its previous tendencies. Soon after Russian tanks and troops poured into Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz began the nation’s defense Zeitenwende (major change/shift), abandoning previous hesitation, guided by the country’s ever-present consideration of its painful past, to provide lethal aid to nations at war. Since the first days of the war, Germany has consistently provided embattled Ukraine with armaments and ammunition to increase its defensive and even offensive capabilities, though its trademark hesitation to make substantial unilateral defense decisions surfaced again in the discussion over the provision of NATO-spec tanks to Ukraine. After weeks of back-and-forth early this year, Washington and Berlin announced that they would both provide modern main battle tanks to bolster Ukraine’s armored divisions. To date, Germany has provided 60 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 20 Leopard 1 A5 tanks, and dozens of potent Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine, surpassing many observers’ expectations and establishing Berlin’s position as an active leader in addressing global security challenges.
As days now stretch into weeks without an elected Speaker for the US House of Representatives, questions have arisen over the direction of the nation’s response to the events in Israel and Gaza and continued US aid to Ukraine. Now, Germany and other US allies are not waiting for Washington’s lead in addressing both conflicts. With its announcement that it would provide a second “winter package” of defense aid for Ukraine on October 10, Germany demonstrated its increasing willingness to stand by the beleaguered nation regardless of Washington’s policy direction, which has been recently called into question by Republican pushes to reduce or eliminate assistance for Ukraine from spending bills. Providing another advanced Patriot air defense system and equipment earmarked specifically for Ukraine’s special forces as they lead a bogged-down counteroffensive signals to both Kyiv and Washington that Germany remains committed to Ukrainian defense.
In addition to announcing further Ukraine aid in the midst of US partisan bickering over budgets and national security priorities, Germany has taken an active role in responding to the Israel-Gaza crisis. This past Tuesday, Chancellor Scholz touched down in Israel to begin his “solidarity visit” with Israeli leadership, following German Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock’s prior visit on October 13, when she met families of Israeli hostages and viewed sites of Hamas rocket attacks. After meeting with Israeli leaders to express support and push for increased humanitarian aid provision to Gaza, Scholz gave a joint speech with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, warning Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah, not to join the fray. Shortly before leaving Israel, Scholz and the entourage of press traveling with him had to take cover as Israeli air defenses engaged several incoming rockets over Tel Aviv’s airport. As the first Western leader to conduct such a solidarity visit after the October 7 attacks, Scholz put into action Germany’s commitment to Israeli security, described as a Staatsräson (reason of state) for years, and further established Germany’s role as a leader in the European response to the regionally destabilizing events of the past few weeks.
As Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues to notch slower-than-hoped gains against occupying Russian forces and the simmering Middle East conflict threatens to boil over into a regional war, European nations, including Germany, will persist in forging their own paths in their responses to these crises. For Germany-watchers, these most recent declarations of support for Ukraine and prompt shows of solidarity with Israel represent the ongoing evolution of German foreign policy as the nation adapts new stances in response to a rapidly changing world. Though President Joe Biden announced his intentions to request extensive funding for both Israel and Ukraine during his October 19 Oval Office address, when this funding request will be brought to a vote is anyone’s guess as Rep. Jim Jordan’s nomination for the Speaker seat was recently withdrawn; internal Republican schisms suggest that many potential candidates would also fail in their bids. As Biden continues such attempts to signal American steadfastness through addresses and visits, Berlin will likely remain a first-mover in response to developments in these conflicts.