China Enters the Middle East
Suhas Nannapaneni
Ever since President Trump exited the JCPOA, Iran has had a few limited options. The first was retaliating by increasing its nuclear leverage since the positive effects of the Iran Nuclear Deal have been greatly diminished by the US’s tough sanctions. The second was to engage directly by increasing its state-sponsored terrorism in Syria, Yemen, and especially in Iraq. This would hit the US especially hard as public opinion against so-called endless wars has ramped up consistently over the past decade. The third option was to wait out Trump’s administration and hope the Democrats win the White House which might open opportunities to reenter the JCPOA. Biden’s administration, although nominally always available for negotiations, has not let up on sanctions and has made no indication to do so in the future – much to the Iranians’ disappointment.
Now, they have turned towards their fourth option – courting another Great Power who has historically not been very involved in the Middle East. As China continues to expand its debt diplomacy through the Belt and Road Initiative, it has entered a bilateral deal with Iran dubbed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Despite its seemingly innocuous name, it has far reaching impacts as America’s two largest threats join hands to stave off isolation and dependence on the West.
The foreign ministers of each country, Javad Zarif and Wang Yi, met in Tehran during Yi’s trip to meet not only Iran, but also Saudi Arabia, Turkey, U.A.E., Bahrain, and Oman. China has even offered to facilitate a peace deal between Israel and Palestine. Clearly, China has deemed itself ready to be a great power with influence in the tumultuous Middle East alongside the United States, Russia, and the European Union.
So, what exactly is in the deal between China and Iran? Although the details of the agreement were not made public prior to the agreement, experts agree that it is mostly identical to the draft that was leaked last year. The draft included $400 billion in Chinese investments across many sectors of the economy including banking, telecommunications, ports, railways, health care, and information technology over the next 25 years. In return, China will receive a regular and heavily discounted supply of Iranian oil, which is crucial for its energy independence.
However, it does not end with China just becoming a cornerstone of the Iranian economy using debt diplomacy. The draft also called for increased military cooperation, including joint training and exercises, research and weapons development, and intelligence-sharing. Although it might seem that Iran is giving too much away to China, its isolation in recent years has practically forced Khamenei’s hand. President Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA, imposing new tariffs that have scared off European investment and pushed inflation well above 30%. Now, Iran has gotten $400 billion in investments, likely with plenty of hidden strings, towards multiple foundational sectors of the economy. Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, has said that, “China is a friend for hard times.”
Supporters of the deal point towards Iran’s pragmatism while detractors consider another step towards our new Cold War against China. Not only has China entered the Middle East to create new alliances, but it has also been able to impose sanctions and boycotts against the West. As the United States, Britain, Canada, and the European Union announced sanctions over the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, China has not stepped down. Instead, it has imposed a boycott of fashion houses such as H&M and Gap, making them impossible to find on Chinese apps and banning them from online retail stores.
As President Biden stated in his first press conference this past week, the next generation will likely be studying whether democracy or autocracy has succeeded in the 21st century. As China enters the Middle East and pushes the world towards bipolarism, it will become a paradigm that our generation will have to pay great attention to.