Coercion and Crackdown: The US-Mexico Relationship under Trump
As of March 7, Trump’s ultimatum to Mexico to charge the country with 25% tariffs if they didn’t crack down harder on organized crime and drug cartels resulted in a one-month exemption for products as part of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.
This marks the second time Trump has threatened hefty tariffs on Mexico, the first being on February 1. These tariffs represent attempts to economically coerce Mexico to stop the flow of fentanyl and migrants over the US-Mexico border. While fentanyl deaths have slowed in the past year along with the number of border crossings, Trump’s declaration in Congress on March 4 highlighted his intentions, as he stated that “the cartels are waging war on America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.”
Cartels in Mexico dominate the manufacturing, import, and distribution of fentanyl, cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and meth in the US. Fentanyl, the synthetic opioid that is up to 50 times more potent than heroin, is cooked inside seemingly ordinary kitchens in seemingly ordinary houses. The ease of production marks the saturation of fentanyl in the US, with this form responsible for nearly 70% of the US’s 107,000 drug overdose deaths in the past year. Cartels, along with fentanyl trafficking, often engage in extortion, migrant smuggling, oil and mineral theft, prostitution, and the weapons trade. They use their profits to bribe judges, police, and politicians to look the other way and use threats to coerce officials into cooperation.
The crackdown on drug cartels marks a shift for Mexico, whose previous president had a “hugs, not bullets” approach to crime in the country that attempted but failed to address the root causes of criminality while avoiding violence. Current President Claudia Sheinbaum, however, has proven her willingness to utilize confrontation and soldiers to stop the cartels. Earlier in her presidency, soldiers and cartel gunmen engaged in a series of battles that led to dozens of deaths.
On February 27, after Trump’s initial tariff threat, Sheinbaum illustrated her desire to handle the cartels on her own terms, without US assistance. Sheinbaum deployed 10,000 national guard troops to the US-Mexico border, launched an anti-fentanyl advertising campaign, and prioritized arrests of top criminal leaders. This historic crackdown led to the extradition of 29 criminal leaders to the United States, among them some of Mexico’s most infamous drug traffickers.
In response to Sheinbaum’s actions, Trump postponed the tariffs and praised Sheinbaum, stating that he postponed the tariffs “as an accommodation, and out of respect for President Sheinbaum.” Compared to the rhetoric surrounding Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, or “Governor Trudeau,” as Trump likes to call him, this more agreeable relationship he has with President Sheinbaum is certainly one to monitor carefully.
The Trump Administration has also stepped up its efforts to curb fentanyl production and smuggling. One shift prioritized the drug cartels by designating some of the most prolific Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, or FTOs. This designation places the drug cartels on the same level as Hamas, ISIS, and Boko Haram and also permits new funds to expand operations, such as intelligence gathering or military force, to combat the FTOs.
These actions have had devastating effects on the cartel members, with operation shutdowns, lab relocations, and a series of arrests and seizures of fentanyl. In response to these changes, cartel operatives have started scaling down their operations and laying low to avoid suspicion. Many others are preparing to invest in equipment that detect American government drones. Despite the changes and crackdown, cartels have a long history of surviving efforts to dismantle them, such as by creating splintering groups as the number of cartels increases and shrinking the size of each operation.
Current and future policy direction for dealing with the cartels is not simple, nor is it universally agreed upon. Inside the Trump Administration itself, differing opinions exist on Mexico’s involvement in the fight against the cartels. While Trump wants Mexico to handle the issue, Mexico’s alleged government entanglement with cartels makes both potential cooperation and unitary action difficult. Similarly, Sheinbaum has not simply rolled over and given in to Trump’s demands. She has noted that while the drugs may come from Latin America, it is American consumers who demand and buy them.
This back-and-forth tariff cycle throughout North America puts the economy through a whirlwind, with the Mexican peso weakening during the latest episode. If Trump is not satisfied with Steinbaum’s progress on dealing with the cartels byApril, and he follows through with the tariffs, Mexico could slip into a recession. While Trump and Steinbaum have made their moves, the future is hazy, and we’re left to speculate how the tariffs and the crackdown unfold in the next few weeks.