Cold War 2.0: Arctic Edition
Photo courtesy of NOAA.
In the minds of many individuals, the Arctic is just a freezing desolate wasteland, home to polar bears, RedBull snowsports athletes, and the occasional doomed expedition. But thanks to climate change, this icy hellscape is melting at nearly four times faster than the global average. Because of this, many countries and corporations are begging to see what's beneath the Arctic’s seemingly endless mantle. The arctic is estimated to contain 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its untapped natural gas. Also, because the icebergs are melting, new shipping routes, especially in Canada’s Northwest Passage and Russia’s Northern Sea are opening up so you can get that pink and white Stanley cup with little gold flecks even faster. These climate induced changes have raised tensions among powerful global players such as the United States, The Russian Federation, China, and Arctic nations like Norway.
Climate change is stoking flames in the region and setting the stage for a theater of great power competition. Since the beginning of the Cold War, the Arctic has been an avenue of approach to the homeland. Soviet bombers would fly over the Arctic to strike America. Even today much of US missile defense infrastructure is in the Arctic. Russia currently holds about 50% of the Arctic coastline and has heavily invested in military bases and nuclear icebreakers (a really big boat that can cut through the frozen arctic waters). The US is lagging a bit behind in arctic investment and currently only has two icebreakers (Russia’s got 40…). The geopolitics were also further altered following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which caused two Nordic states, Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership. The arctic is an important priority for NATO because the north atlantic and the arctic would be the point for North American supplies flowing to European allies in a crisis.
Increasingly, countries outside the Arctic have become more active in the region, and China has called itself a “near-Arctic” power. Many countries are interested in access to new sources of resources and shipping routes. China is Russia’s largest trading partner (as it is for 120 countries). China has invested nearly $90 Billion into energy and resource projects in the Arctic over the past decade. Increased activity by China and Russia in the arctic are indicative of “great power competition in global spaces.” The next few years are prone to see increased activity in the Arctic as countries scramble to get a slice. The great powers are coalescing and I feel that a security dilemma could be brewing.