Crisis in Thailand: Why Four Plus Four Does Not Equal Eight

Robert Cole

Last week, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that sitting Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-Ocha could remain in power following a challenge that he was exceeding the constitutionally established term limit of eight years.  The court reasoned that the constitutional provision did not apply since it was only ratified in 2017. From the outside, the decision feels patently absurd; General Prayuth has served for eight years as Prime Minister, following a military coup in 2014 that ousted the elected civilian government, and the relevant section of the Thai constitution does not include exceptions for officeholders whose terms began before it was enacted. Nevertheless, given the degree of military control over the Thai government, the decision was expected by most observers. 

The court’s decision was delivered against a backdrop of simmering tensions within Thai society. A wave of protests shook the country in 2020 amidst calls for reform of the powerful Thai monarchy, which has amassed more power in recent years under King Vajiralongkorn. Closely allied with the military junta that officially wields power, the monarchy has aggressively sought to prosecute critics through the country’s lese majeste laws. The King has also brought the royal finances and several military units under his direct control. Though these protests ultimately came to an end due to harsh prosecution of hundreds of participants through the lese majeste laws, with the accused receiving up to fifteen years in prison for each count. 

The divisions within Thai society that these protests represented run deep. On one hand, the monarchy is a tremendously significant part of Thai civic culture, an icon of national pride and sovereignty in the only Southeast Asian country to never be conquered by a European empire. The crown also has deep ties to Thailand’s dominant Buddhist faith, to which 93% of the population adheres. Though there are reportedly divisions within the monastic community over politics, the government has imposed strict limits on the involvement of monks in politics, forbidding them from being involved in the 2020 protests and barring them from voting. As with nearly all social movements, the economy also plays a significant role. Thailand has one of the lowest rates of economic growth in the region, and suffered like most countries from the economic effects of the covid-19 pandemic. With millions of people getting poorer as their king consolidates control over a fortune in crown property, disgust with the ruling regime only has only increased. The salacious personal life of the monarch has not helped to quell concerns about the institution he embodies. King Vajiralongkorn succeeded his father in 2016, and has spent much of the subsequent time living abroad in Germany, while also being the first monarch in modern times to take more than one wife. Compared to his father, who was seen by the public as a paragon of morality, this has been quite a tone shift.

The decision to allow General Prayuth to remain Prime Minister has reactivated these simmering resentments, with members of the political opposition calling for protests. How the military and the monarchy will react is yet to be seen. Will the government mercilessly crush dissent as it has in the past, or will reformists finally begin to gain ground? It is impossible to tell for certain.