Dune, Taiwan, and Becoming Invaluable

I’ll start this off by admitting that I haven’t watched Dune: Part 2 yet. However, I did just finish rereading the novel, so if something sounds unfamiliar, I’m getting to the movie soon. (Also, spoiler warning if you haven’t read/watched, stop reading here!) That said, near the end of the novel, one line struck me:

“He who can destroy a thing has control of it.”

Herbert is referencing the spice melange, which is the sci-fi drug that makes the world go-round in Dune. It is the rarest and most valuable substance in the Dune universe, and only found on the brutal desert planet of Arrakis. Melange, when ingested, is highly addictive but can heighten awareness, mental ability, double or triple lifespans, and be used for space travel.

Towards the end of the novel, the protagonist, Paul, has come to be the de facto feudal lord of Arrakis by overthrowing the prior Duke of Arrakis. Fearing the upstart Paul, the Universe’s Emperor and the rest of the feudal lords arrive in orbit of Arrakis threatening war. Paul counters, threatening to destroy the deserts where the precious drug is mined. Using melange as leverage, Paul forces the Emperor to withdraw his fleet and that of his loyal feudal lords, guaranteeing the safety of Arrakis. 

Paul made Arrakis invaluable: any war over the planet would result in the destruction of the rarest and most valuable substance in the universe, a product which had become synonymous with the success of humanity. A drug so powerful that it had allowed a single planet to stand up to the hegemony of an Emperor who controls “the known Universe”. 

Now compare that to Taiwan.

Taiwan sits in the shadow of China, a mostly unrecognized country due to fear of Chinese sanctioning. Despite being self-governing since 1949, Taiwan continually lives in danger of Chinese aggression: Beijing’s “One China Principal” claims that Taiwan is an “inalienable part of China” and reunification is a longstanding key geopolitical goal of the CCP. China routinely fires missiles over Taiwan in a show of force, violates their territorial waters, and has launched artillery campaigns against outlying islands. In the search for security, Taiwan has adopted an unconventional “semiconductor shield” from Beijing’s aggression.

The Taiwanese semiconductor industry has made the island a key figure to global commerce, medicine, weaponry, transportation, communication, energy, and computing. Taiwanese companies controlled 63% of semiconductor market shares in 2020. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry logged over 115 billion USD in 2020, 17% of the island’s GDP. TSMC, Taiwan’s leading semiconductor company, produces 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, 22% of all semiconductors, and are behind the custom computer chips used in Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, Tesla, AMD, and dozens of others.

Semiconductors are the melange of the 21st century, and right now, Taiwan is Arrakis.

Taiwan has used semiconductors to become invaluable. They have become crucial to all aspects of the global market. No other company or country can match the advanced semiconductor chips which Taiwan produces, and no other country can function without them. A Chinese attack on Taiwan would doubtless see the destruction of these semiconductor facilities, facilities China’s manufacturing powerhouse relies on (China buys 28% of Taiwanese semiconductors, the most of any country). Attacking Taiwan would destroy their semiconductor production; akin to attacking Arrakis and destroying it’s melange: commercial suicide. 

Semiconductors production has also made Taiwan crucial allies. The value of semiconductors means that keeping Taiwan afloat is in the interest of everyone who uses them, including major backers like the US. As long as Taiwanese semiconductors reign supreme, the US will back Taiwan and strongly oppose Chinese aggression towards the island.

The major difference is that unlike melange, semiconductors could be produced anywhere.

In 2020, the CHIPS+ act earmarked $52 billion for US semiconductor research and development and fabrication, aiming to lessen US reliance on foreign semiconductor manufacturing. Around the world, there are 73 fabrication centers being built. 40% of them are in the US, and 76% of the facilities around the world are expected to open in the next 4 years. Worldwide, the European version of the CHIPS+ act earmarked $47 billion for the European semiconductor industry, aiming to double their global market share from 10% to 20% by 2030. China is also ramping up efforts and are investing tens of billions in building up their own semiconductor capacity and combating US initiatives to limit China’s semiconductor capacity. 

Taiwan has an unquestionable head start and a near-monopoly on the most sophisticated semiconductor fabrication tech, but this may not be the case for long. Taiwan is a small country, and just doesn’t have the resources and manpower of China, the US, or the EU.

 Taiwan’s melange, semiconductors, have made the island invaluable and nearly untouchable, but what happens when the industry moves away? If the “Semiconductor Shield” goes down, will the West still stand beside Taiwan? How long can the semiconductor industry defend the island?

This is where Dune and Taiwan diverge completely—I won’t spoil too much of Children of Dune for you—but when another place suitable for melange is discovered, Arrakis’s value vanishes, and the planet is annihilated. Taiwan’s melange, semiconductors, have made the island invaluable and have become its strongest defense, but what happens when the industry moves away? If the “Semiconductor Shield” goes down, will the West still stand beside Taiwan? How can Taiwan adapt to global competition when their own security hangs in the balance?