European Decline
The inability of European nations to increase their defense production in order to both uphold NATO commitments and support Ukraine in its defense against Russia has been covered immensely. It has also been underscored that the typical European powers, namely Germany, France, and the UK, face increasing political polarization as the establishment left-wing parties face a growing threat from insurgent right-wing isolationist factions.
It could be argued that these phenomena are both closely connected and fueled by a realist worldview in which Russia cannot be defeated in Ukraine. It will merely settle into a war of attrition that will drain European and American resources until eventually a settlement is reached. The issues of the East are not relevant to those in the West. This sentiment is mirrored in the current populist movement in the US. However, it is actually the consequence of this worldview that European nations are facing the problem of ineffective government. Without unanimous acknowledgement of an existential threat, it is impossible for governing coalitions to agree on policy even on domestic issues, of which there are plenty in Europe.
For instance, Germany now has seven different governing political parties, including the new far-right AfD, and Macron’s government in France must cater to the new far-right National Rally party. It is no wonder that western European economies face sluggish growth, largely due to excessive regulation. For example, European countries have devoted extensive resources and funding to transition from fossil fuels, but European companies cannot even reap these benefits.
According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, many reserves of lithium cannot even be mined in the EU because of environmental regulations. Current European governments are simply unable to make necessary revisions to these regulations. Then, of course, there is the issue of arms production and maintaining commitments to NATO and Ukraine. With problems including high housing and energy costs as well as a massive migrant problem, it is naive to think there is even a chance of those being upheld.
Considering this context, it would help European leaders to adopt a new perspective on the war in Ukraine that would galvanize political unity, and that is by more closely examining the respective political situation in Russia. In a podcast from the Reagan Institute, Dr. Leon Aron, an expert on US-Russia relations at American Enterprise, reminds that Putin also does not enjoy unanimous patriotic support of the war, but rather enjoys “indifference” so long as well-off Russians have access to goods from China. In the mind of the current European political leader, a war of attrition will have to inevitably result in a peace settlement with Russia, as Ukraine will be unable to regain any of its previous territory. Yet, clearly, Ukraine will not settle. In this situation, it is NATO that Putin will have to directly confront in order to gain any sort of leverage in a settlement. Ironically enough, a direct confrontation with Russia would force some level of political unity within Europe to confront an existential threat and alleviate the ineffectiveness of its current governments. Nevertheless, while they have the option to face that threat now, it is more likely that they will merely further their decline until that threat becomes reality.