Foreign Policy Under Trump 2.0
Donald Trump has been elected as President of the United States once again, in a decisive electoral college and popular vote victory. His previous foreign policy record was abysmal by the standards of most experts, and he will enter the Oval Office in January faced with unprecedented global challenges in addition to a highly polarized and divided America. If Trump is to accomplish anything substantive, here is a brief list of recommendations he ought to consider (and what from his previous term to avoid):
Don’t start another trade war with China.
While the Biden Administration may have maintained Trump’s protectionist approach to trade, Trump will likely go even further in his second term in an attempt to completely dismantle the U.S.’ reliance on Chinese goods. In his first term, tariffs were imposed in order to reduce the trade deficit, but it escalated into an all out trade war which massively harmed American consumers and companies. The deficit with China eventually decreased, but the overall deficit did not: unilateral tariffs diverted trade flows from China, causing the U.S. trade deficit with Europe, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to increase as a result. Increasing the tariffs to a proposed 60% on all imports from China in his second term would be even worse for American households and exporters, and strain U.S-China relations even further.
Don’t let Russia get away with Ukrainian territory.
Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine swiftly, but his proposed deal is laughably unrealistic. Forcing both sides to negotiate with the threat of withholding military assistance would likely end up with a deal where Ukraine retains sovereignty, but they would essentially give up 20% of their territory and also promise not to join NATO (an institution that Trump is less than fond of). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is not likely to agree, and even if he did, who’s to say that Putin won’t just simply invade again? A deal like this scarily resembles the strategy of appeasement employed by Britain in the 1930s, which allowed Hitler to expand German territory through force. Ending the war in such a manner would be nothing more than a political victory, and set a dangerous precedent for American global cooperation.
Be more firm on denuclearization.
Nuclear non-proliferation has historically been non-partisan, and pursued by U.S. presidents for almost 60 years. The 1968 Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is held up by America’s commitment to protect allies in the event of conflict under the condition that they do not develop nuclear weapons. But Trump, being highly skeptical of alliances, undermined commitments to this so-called “nuclear umbrella” in his first term. He failed to reach a nuclear deal with North Korea, and pulled the U.S. out of its nuclear deal with Iran. It only makes logical sense then, that allies should have nuclear weapons, too, if enemies obtaining them is obviously inevitable. Nuclear deterrence only works until someone actually uses one, and failing to pursue non-proliferation could have destructive implications.
A second Trump presidency is rightfully worrisome to our foreign allies, but the damage could be lessened with adherence to a diplomacy forward, multilateral approach. It is not inherently partisan to suggest common sense strategies, and Trump does not necessarily have to sacrifice political gains in order to respect the rules-based international order. With global tensions rising, Trump in the driver’s seat of U.S. grand strategy could very well have the opportunity to redefine his foreign policy record and stave off chaos, for now.