Gaza’s Future in Trump’s Shadow
Kamala’s supporters watched their TV screens with shock and disbelief. Pre-election polls in the United States had indicated a tight race, with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump competing fiercely in key battleground states. After a few hours, the TV screen was a blur of red as Trump snagged victory, winning both the electoral college, and the popular vote.
It is difficult to make concrete foreign policy predictions based on a leader as erratic, bombastic, and volatile as Donald Trump. The state of the middle east is also different than it was during Trump’s first term, with the Israel-Hamas war raging. During Trump’s first term we saw the implementation of the Abraham Accords which normalized relations between Israel and Arab nations United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. One of the first foreign policy decisions we can expect from Trump in this second term is to attempt to finalize the normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, started under Biden – this is largely the extent of Trump’s plan for ‘peace in the middle east.’ Given Israel’s treatment of Gaza with the backing of the United States and the outraged public opinion in the Arab-Islamic world, it is unclear whether the Saudi’s will even entertain this as an option.
Trump’s first term in 2017 was almost completely positive for Israel. The White House recognized the Golan Heights as Israeli Territory – a somewhat disputed geostrategic asset. Whoever controls the Golan, Israel or Syria gains a strategic high ground advantage if conflict where to surface. Trump’s White House also declared that Israeli settlements in the West Bank consistent with International Law.
Biden’s administration created an “environment of permissibility” that Israel and Donald Trump will exploit. Biden’s administration, while completely supporting Israel by providing aid and weapons, was on the surface somewhat critical of Israeli annexation, and pretends to support a two-state solution, while deep-down the Biden administration might really believe these things, Biden’s administration allowed Israel’s treatment of Gaza to happen. It enabled the same forces which will only be accelerated by Trump.
Smotrich, a minister in Israel’s Defense Ministry sees a second Trump Presidency as a green light to claim sovereignty over portions of the west bank, refereeing to them in their biblical names as “Judea and Samaria.” Hawkish members of Netanyahu’s government are rejoicing over Trump’s election. Under his presidency, Israeli settlements in the west bank will only increase. Settlers in the Westbank are part of a deliberate Israeli strategy to make a two-state solution less viable. The more territory that Israel “claims” the harder it is to reach an agreement on the division of land between Israel and Palestine. In the long run, the biggest beneficiaries will be the forces of radical Islamic extremism who will gain new recruits as the region sinks further into conflict and misery.
Gaza’s future looks unstable and while Trump will inevitably push for an end to the war in Gaza – He will also support Israel’s quest to cripple UNRWA (the main humanitarian agency in Gaza and the West Bank), due to suspected involvement in terrorist activities. This would basically give Netanyahu a free hand to annex the North of Gaza along with the inevitable annexation of the West Bank.
Just when you think you have hit rock bottom, and it can’t get any worse, think again. It can and it will get worse.