India Isn't A Superpower, And China Wants It to Stay That Way
2023 was, quite literally, a big year for India. In April, India overtook China as the world’s most populated country, marking modern history’s most drastic demographic shift. Mirroring this population growth are increases in India’s global influence, military power, and economic expansion. In recent years, India’s digital services sector has emerged as one of the most exciting areas of economic activity globally, and it has not shown signs of slowing down. India is ranked 5th in global GDP, and propelled by its increasing efforts to become an international player, the question of whether India is currently a global superpower emerges.
Comparisons to China have existed since India’s birth, with foreign policy experts predicting India would eventually become Asia’s most prominent superpower in the 80s, overtaking China. However, China still outcompetes India in almost every way, economically and militarily. What distinguishes China from India is also the obstacle to India’s pathway to becoming a global superpower. India will not overtake China or become a superpower until they address the lack of investment in human capital.
Historically, the primary drivers of a country’s transition from developing to developed nations have been higher investment in human capital and higher participation of women in the workforce, two places where India lags behind the international community. Inequality runs rampant in India. Dubai is home to some of the wealthiest sectors in the world, but much of the country is marked by subhuman slum conditions. Its spending on public healthcare is among the lowest in the world, its poverty rates are still substantially high despite decreases, and cultural practices like child marriage still disproportionately hurt women in India. 60% of India’s 1.3 billion people still live at or below the poverty line. Unlike China, home to several highly-ranked universities whose mathematics programs are in the top 50 in the world, India has no universities ranked in the top 100 for any subject.
Despite India’s conceived image as “the mother of democracy,” it has seen many encroachments on civil liberties in recent years. The lynching of Muslims has emerged as a rising threat. This persecution extends beyond just domestic disputes, with national legislation such as the Citizenship Act of 2019 being passed that discriminates against Muslim asylum seekers. Crackdowns on free speech, limitations on political dissent, poor governance, and systematic misinformation contribute to India’s lowered ranking on the Democratic Index. India promotes democratic values internationally but does not uphold them at home.
That said, India is becoming a very important piece in global affairs, especially concerning the Sino-Indian border disputes and vies for power in the Asian hemisphere. India may not be a superpower, but it still holds significant influence over the countries near it, and China most definitely feels threatened by India’s development.
India’s foreign eye has shifted from Pakistan towards China, with Pakistani-Indian relations taking a more conciliatory, albeit tense, tone in recent years. This does not apply to Chinese-Indian relations. In 2020, violence broke out on the Galwan border between Indian and Chinese workers. The Line of Actuality between China and India has long been contested, with both countries wanting to develop infrastructure and build military might along the border to assert their dominance over the area.
Since the Galwan disputes, the Sino-Indian competition has been taken to the diplomatic stage, as reflected by the recent chess battle for control over the tiny country of Maldives. China wants to control the Maldives to protect its oil market, and India feels threatened by China’s growing influence in their next-door neighbor. While India is not a global superpower, it could become one, and China is taking preventative measures. Recently, China signed several military deals with the current president of Maldives, who organized his campaign around an anti-Indian sentiment, which led to Indian soldiers leaving the country.
While India still has funding and a base in Maldives, China is tightening its grip, which could fuel future conflict. Sure, India is not a superpower yet, but China will ensure it stays that way.