Israel vs. Hezbollah – A New Crisis on the Horizon
Photo by Joe Kassis
Last week’s targeted attack using walkie-talkies and pagers rigged with explosives by Israel marks a new phase of war as the conflict with Hezbollah intensifies. It seemed as though both sides were previously wary of engaging in anything more than preventive attacks - displays of force that aren’t quite substantial enough to draw a more devastating counterattack that triggers an all out war. But the problem with this logic is that if one side strikes, the other side responds with something just a little more aggressive. The cycle continues until restraint ultimately breaks down, and the conflict escalates – exactly what has just happened. This is bad for a whole number of reasons, but first some context and background: who are the players, when did this start, and what’s at stake?
Hezbollah is an Iranian backed militant group as well as a Shiite Muslim political party in Lebanon. The group originated during the Lebanese Civil War that lasted from 1975 to 1990, releasing their first manifesto swearing violent opposition to Israel and Western influence in 1985. As a proxy of Iran, they have been involved in global terrorism plots and border skirmishes with Israel, as well as rocket attacks and cross-border exchanges. Many civilians in Lebanon also rely on Hezbollah for the provision of social services such as infrastructure, schools, healthcare, and youth programs, essentially operating as a separate government (which the Lebanese authorities nor military seem to be able to deal with). Lebanese civilians in Hezbollah - controlled territories have felt in the past as though the group’s military operations caused them to neglect their duties domestically, and a war with Israel could cause those same tensions to ignite again – not to mention many civilians being left without critical support from the governing body they rely on.
Immediately after the devastating Hamas attack on October 7th of last year, Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel in a show of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. The two sides have been engaged in conflict ever since, but with Israel occupied with the war in Gaza and Hezbollah fearful of retaliation, major escalation had been avoided.
Now, the two sides seem to be on the brink of an all out war (if whatever has already been going on for decades doesn’t count as a war), as Hezbollah has promised revenge for Israel’s Operation Exploding Pager and Israel seems to be preparing for a potential ground assault into Lebanon. Israeli airstrikes followed the initial attack, taking out top Hezbollah leadership, but this doesn’t seem to have deterred Hezbollah from firing off rocket attacks of their own (which have all been intercepted, obviously). A ground assault is only more likely if the air attacks continue. All the while, civilians in both northern Israel and southern Lebanon/Beirut are becoming increasingly more vulnerable as neither side seems willing to deescalate.
Israel now risks fighting on two fronts, which for many reasons does not bode well for Benjamin Netanyahu’s political career. Firstly, it’s just bad strategy. The U.S. has already urged Israel to use diplomacy in Lebanon rather than force, as the general international consensus seems to be that an all out war is not ideal. If the goal for Netanyahu is to return civilians to their homes in northern Israel, heavy machine gun fire and rockets exploding everywhere does not make that very feasible. Secondly, Israeli citizens are already fed up with Netanyahu’s inability to secure the hostages taken by Hamas, and beginning a new phase in a broader regional war is certainly not convincing anyone that a hostage deal is being worked on. Furthermore, Israel might be prepared to unleash the same destruction and disregard for human life on Lebanon that it has on Gaza, but the military opponent is now entirely different. Hezbollah’s capabilities are far more advanced compared to those of Hamas, in terms of fighting experience of personnel, technology, rocket arsenal, and leadership. Israel may be able to intercept airstrikes for now, but Hezbollah’s estimated full arsenal of 150,000 to 200,000 rockets would be much harder to stop. Israel doesn’t face much of a threat with Hamas, but a war with Hezbollah on top of the existing conflict is certainly cause for concern.
If it hadn’t been already, the latest episode of “How Bad Can I Make the Situation” for Netanyahu really calls into question what Israel’s endgame actually is here. If they wanted the hostages back, they would work with the U.S. and Hamas to get a ceasefire deal. If they wanted to return civilians to their homes in northern Israel, they would not escalate the conflict with Hezbollah. The only goal it seems they have any interest in achieving is causing as much damage to surrounding territory as possible. Hezbollah will undoubtedly use the same tactics as Hamas, and Israel will probably oblige them by killing the civilians that they hide behind. Even if they are able to take out Hezbollah leadership, we’ve seen time and again that this has little effect on the enemy’s capabilities and is really just more politically useful. The U.S. needs to recognize the pattern and really start to consider putting some conditions on its unconditional support for Israel (especially because the U.S. recognizes Lebanon as a sovereign country). A peaceful resolution is the only way to prevent further suffering, but it will require the cooperation and perhaps compromise of all the involved parties. The current outlook for this happening, however, seems to be grim.