Justice on Trial: The Democratic Cost of Mexico’s Judicial Overhaul
In September 2024, Mexico’s legislature passed a controversial law to reform the nation’s judiciary. The vote came with overwhelming support from President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s (AMLO) ruling party, Morena, despite harsh pushback from the judiciary, which attempted to block this move with three separate court injunctions. This law changes the judiciary from being appointed to being directly elected by the people, and the changes take place in 2025 despite no explicit guidance on judicial campaign regulations or finance regulations. Additionally, this reduces the judge’s terms to 12 years and limits their salary.
This law emerged at the end of AMLO’s one-time, six-year term, which was defined by his concentration of power and subversion of checks and balances. President-elect Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum, the winner of this summer’s presidential election from the Morena party, takes office in October 2024.
Proponents argue this reform shifts the power to the people, as the judiciary would be selected by popular vote, thus, the judiciary is more representative of the people’s needs. Advocates also argue that changing to this model combats a corrupt, technocratic bureaucracy.
However, this approach undermines the separation of powers and politicizes an institution that was created to be apolitical; Additionally, the opportunity for corruption, bribery, and drug cartel interference becomes a possibility in the politicization of the judiciary. Further, concern that unfair or unfounded legal principles will be put forth is raised, as the new judiciary would be composed of politicians, rather than technically trained and experienced legal experts.
Aside from suppositions and hypotheticals, Bolivia’s judicial system offers a glimpse into the reality of changing a judiciary to be directly elected: In 2009, Bolivia instituted a reform where federal judges became elected by popular vote, and aside from more diversity in the courts, there were no profound effects on countering corruption. Following the reform, Bolivians were proved to be more skeptical and less confident in the courts, because they became politicized.
The passage of the reform has already had effects: The value of the Mexican Peso dipped following the announcement, and the credit rating agency, Moody’s, warns that some investments and funds could be at risk, as a political judiciary may not offer legal certainty that collateral could be collected legally in the event of a default. The potential adverse economic effects that this reform brings discourages investment in Mexico, something the country must be wary of given the 100+ billion U.S. dollars invested in Mexican stock in 2022, along with an additional $855 billion in trade that same year.
The judicial reform is a concerning step towards power consolidation, which is a tactic used by authoritarian leaders. Power consolidation facilitates single party domination, which is not new for Mexico.
For 71 years, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI party, held unmatched political and economic power. Under that rule, the quality of life improved for many Mexicans, yet corruption, inequality, and lack of political freedoms created difficult circumstances for many. A reversion to this style of leadership and tactics jeopardizes the democratic progress that the country has achieved in the past few decades.
Mexico is not alone in the erosion of democracy: populist leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Donald Trump from the U.S., Narendra Modi of India, and Nayib Bukele from El Salvador all represent a global shift toward right-wing populism, which poses a threat to democracy. 2024 is a critical year, because by the end, almost half of the world’s population will have undergone national elections; just over two months remain before we will have a complete picture of what the next generation of political rule will look like.