Can Orbán be stopped? Hungary's Upcoming Election, and what it means for Europe
A demonstration at Fidesz headquarters in 2018.
Photo by Atlatszo.hu/Tremmel Márk.
Since 2010, Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have governed Hungary through arguably the most turbulent time in Europe since the end of the Cold War. The country has gone through refugee crises, public health emergencies, and economic crises under the leadership of Orbán. The country has accepted over 60,000 refugees from Ukraine, mostly women and children, whilst also rejecting calls from EU leaders to take in refugees from Syria and other Muslim nations. Orbán’s negative opinion towards the European Union, greater European cooperation, and warmth towards the Russian Federation have made the country a pariah within the European Union. Orbán’s domestic reforms within Hungary are arguably cause for even greater concern. After winning the 2010 election in a landslide, Orbán embarked on domestic reforms that have been widely condemned throughout the EU as anti-democratic, transforming the country into an ‘electoral autocracy.’
The reign of Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz in Hungary has seemed unbeatable until recently. The party has won every election through the most recent 2022 Parliamentary elections with an absolute majority. However, Orbán has become increasingly unpopular due to a struggling Hungarian economy and similar cost of living crises affecting many European countries, as well as corruption scandals that have woven distrust in the ruling Fidesz party and Orbán himself. The leading opposition figure to Orbán is Peter Mágyr, a former Fidesz party member turned opposition leader. He rebranded the existing Tisza party in 2024, and is currently leading in the polls heading into the election on Sunday, April 12th. Tisza is a conservative yet pro-EU party that supports realigning its foreign policy to work with, not against, the EU. Mágyr will also likely have to attempt to undo the various anti-democratic reforms made under Orbán’s 16-year rule. A more cooperative and democratic Hungary means greater progress on almost all fronts for the European Union and NATO, which still often make decisions on a unanimous basis.
However, the election outcome is far from certain. The aforementioned lead in polling is strong, roughly 10 points. That being said, Russia has both been investing in election interference on online platforms and amping up ‘security threats’ against Orbán, hoping to potentially have a rally around the flag effect as seen in the U.S. after the attempted assasination on Donald Trump in July of 2024. Further, in the 2022 Parliamentary election, Fidesz was able to win in part due to gerrymandering and slightly outperforming the polling expectations. The future of Hungary’s democracy as well as their future within the European Union is still very unsettled, as increased global instability coupled with the rise of the far-right will all likely help more than hurt the incumbent party. This election may mark a turning point in Hungary’s democracy, or on the contrary, another step in the democratic backsliding of the country.