Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and the Issue of Reestablishing U.S.-Mexico Relations
In October, the reins of the Mexican government will be passed to Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo following a landslide election. She will inherit the seat from President, and notable judiciary reformist, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Notably, President Obrador’s reforms and pausing of ties with the U.S. Embassy failed to appease the unstable relations with the United States. Still, many believed Sheinbaum, the first female leader of Mexico, would be the best individual to lead the nation into the future, as she was practically handpicked to be Obrador’s successor. Sheinbaum also brings personal experience in the United States, as she received her Master's and Doctorate degrees in California in the '90s, living there for years.
If success for Mexico is Sheinmaum’s intent, it is in her best interest to solidify a stronger, lasting bilateral connection with the United States–quite the challenge. So what steps should Claudia Sheinbaum take to create such a relationship with the United States?
Here are a handful of things to focus on if you're Claudia Sheinbaum:
Reinstate U.S. economic investments
Increasing diplomacy and calming negative discourse surrounding the border
Cracking down on immigration, drugs, and crime across Mexico
In 2023, Mexico became the United States’ number-one global trading partner, and millions of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars depend on the neighbors’ bilateral relationship. According to Americas Quarterly, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both likely to promote local investment and a more protectionist approach, so Sheinbaum must work tirelessly to create a sounder trade environment. Stabilizing Mexican markets and alleviating foreign investor concerns, along with developing international trust concerning threats to USMCA (trilateral trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada) are in the President’s best interest. Mexico simply cannot afford another hit to its reputation.
During his Presidency, The Heritage Foundation states, Joe Biden successfully pleaded with Mexican officials to crack down on migrant caravans as they reach the border, but this showed no serious results. Claudia Sheinbaum will likely seek to follow in the footsteps of her predecessor and continue using this limited cooperation regarding migration as leverage to distract the U.S. from Mexico’s recent democratic backsliding and regional [left-wing, dictatorship] sympathies. A game of trade-offs. This posture is unlikely to succeed, though, following the November elections, as both candidates are expected to apply more pressure on border issues–Trump more so than Harris. With this, Sheinbaum must treat lightly in the next few years of her presidency, properly balancing a populist-based conservative approach to migration, along with reopening cooperative dialogue with the U.S. The problem will rest on domestic pressures in Mexico, as former president Obrador’s ability to keep the rising right-wing voices quiet is not expected to be reflected in the new President. Sheinbaum will need to earn the respect of those who hope to find independence from U.S. influence and uphold bilateral relations with their Northern neighbor.
Sheinbaum would also be served well to aggressively [within means] attack crime and drug movement throughout the country. Although this would help relations with the United States, it would also benefit those who reside in Mexico, giving them a reason to feel safe at home. During her campaign run, The Dispatch reported that false videos circulated, implying Sheinbaum allowed migrants to claim inhabited houses across the nation. One could imagine how the right-wing populists of Mexico felt about this. Put simply, Sheinbaum needs to first apply more pressure politically and garner a better immigration operation at home— increased vetting and security measures, for example. This would ensure the legitimacy of the heavy flow of migrants coming in and could limit the draw of those coming to Mexico for reasons of concern. Sheinbaum would also grow relations with the U.S. if she were to cooperate more than her predecessor in investigating cartels, increasing international trust. Start at home, then collaborate with the U.S.
As Vice President Kamala Harris made a trip to the U.S.-Mexico border in Arizona to appeal to American voters early Friday, Sept 27, and former President Trump continued his exuberant rallies across the United States, bolstering threats of 200% tariffs over John Deere production in Mexico last week, the complex relationship with our Southern neighbor remains a contentious conversation to be had. It is clear, despite the leadership and political division across the United States and Mexico, that the pursuits Sheinbaum hopes to accomplish will require some form of cooperation with the States. It will be intriguing to see how this bilateral situation evolves in the coming months.