NATO’s Next Secretary-General: A Fox or a Hedgehog?

After nine years at the helm, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is stepping down. Stoltenberg is the second longest-serving Secretary-General in NATO’s history and has led NATO into one of the organization’s most turbulent times. He will not be leading NATO out of it.

Who will replace him: a fox or a hedgehog?

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the reignited purpose of NATO is as fiery and resolute as before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Generally speaking, that is.

In a time where much of NATO is galvanized into action unheard of since the Cold War, cracks are appearing. Turkey blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden, claiming they supported Kurdish insurgents (in reality, deflecting public attention away from rising authoritarianism and economic dysfunction). Hungary also blocked the accession of Sweden in reaction to Swedish criticism of Hungarian democratic backsliding (a criticism not uniquely from Sweden). And a frontrunner in the US presidential race has implied distancing the country from the alliance. Meanwhile, much of Eastern Europe shows unprecedented enthusiasm for strengthening the bloc.

In this tumultuous moment, who will don the long-trodden shoes of Jens Stoltenberg, a Fox: Mark Rutte; or a Hedgehog: Kaja Kallas?

Isiah Berlin’s 1953 Fox and Hedgehog metaphor categorizes leaders, writers, artists, and philosophers as hedgehogs or foxes. Hedgehogs are highly principled and non-compromising, and base their worldview around one central idea or grand strategy; everything is centripetal. Foxes, on the other hand, are those who are drawn in many directions, doing one thing and another sometimes to the point of self-contradiction, willing to be flexible and chase many individual goals that don’t always orbit around the same grand plan or idea. This dichotomy is clear between the candidates for Secretary-General.

Our fox is Mark Rutte.

Rutte is the former Dutch Prime Minister. During his premiership, he received the moniker “Teflon Mark” for holding together numerous different coalitions across four terms as PM. This can be attributed not only to his negotiation and reliability but also to his blandness. Rutte sees himself as a chairman, not a visionary. His political beliefs are minimal, and he worked with the Dutch far left and far right equally. He even welcomed Vladimir Putin’s NordStream projects until his opinions soured following the invasion of Crimea. Rutte would “Have coffee with the Devil, and probably hug him too” in reference to his ability to negotiate with anyone equally, which he demonstrated by holding together disparate coalitions in parliament. Rutte’s bid is supported by larger states, the US, UK, and Germany have all voiced their preference for is leadership.

Rutte’s nature, the fox, is epitomized in one quote: “Anyone having visions should see a doctor.” He’s not a visionary, he’s not a frontrunner for his ideals and his grand strategy. He is bland, but he could be the means necessary to hold together the ever-more disparate NATO coalition; the “Teflon Mark” to bind skeptical Americans, authoritarian Hungarians, hawkish Baltics, and cautious Germans.

Our hedgehog is Kaja Kallas.

Kallas is the current prime minister of Estonia. She has been highly skeptical of Russia throughout her career, and she has experienced Russian aggression firsthand during the 2007 Cyberattacks on Estonia. She was vocally against the NordStream project, calling it “geopolitical, not economic.” Her premiership has been dominated by the invasion of Ukraine, and she has arisen as a leader in supporting Ukraine, particularly among the former Warsaw Pact states. Estonia has given the largest share of its GDP in aid to Ukraine, and Kaja Kallas has advocated along borderline hawkish lines for NATO expansion and opposition to Russian aggression. She has voiced strong support for Ukraine’s EU bid and rejected calls for “peace at any cost” as well as Ukrainian cession of territory.  She has echoed fears that the Baltics will be the Kremlin’s next targets and that inaction toward Ukraine is complacency. For her efforts, she has been dubbed Europe’s new “Iron Lady.” 

Kallas’s hedgehog nature manifests in the need to defend Ukraine being superlatively central to her goals. Kallas grew up in the Soviet Union, watched it fall, and believes she is witnessing the West’s complacency as it is rebuilt. She foresees her country as the next target. She is rumored to be supported by several Eastern European states, especially the Baltics. Kallas represents the need to bring NATO out of its 30-year hibernation. As Russia tests NATO’s resolve, the organization must revive and respond.

These two natures represent two distinct challenges that NATO faces. One is internal: NATO is not a united front. Fractures are appearing in the bloc, and diplomatic debates threaten the cohesion and capability of the alliance. The second is external, NATO is facing a threat unseen in three decades in the face of renewed Russian aggression. 

A fox, Mark Rutte, is an ideal candidate for the internal challenge: holding together the NATO alliance and negotiating the organization through its internal struggles. 

A hedgehog, Kaja Kallas, is an ideal candidate for the external challenge: spearheading a revival of NATO power and opposition to Russian aggression.

The candidate chosen will be a resounding statement of which challenge NATO fears more.