North Korea - The Fight for Relevance on a Crowded World Stage
It’s been a while since North Korea has been a top news headliner.
With the war in Gaza and subsequent escalation in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and the continued rise and threat of China and Iran to the US, North Korea has seemingly been on the back of people’s minds when it comes to immediate outside threats to the US and the West.
However, within the past month, two events have marked North Korea’s determination to play its hand and place a stake in global politics, despite the self-isolationist tendencies and belligerent nature of Kim Jong Un.
One incident is that of increasing bad relations between North Korea and its neighbor, South Korea, and the other, the reported North Korean forces fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, October 9th, the North Korean army announced the completeness of the fortification of its armed border and the complete cut off of rail and road links to South Korea. The gradual fortification of defenses by Pyongyang also came with another nuclear threat against South Korea, coming after South Korea demonstrated it could hold its own following several military exercises, US strategic visits, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s recent display of its missiles and weapon arsenal. Along with the destruction of infrastructure connecting the two countries is the increasing frequency of Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s “fiery rhetoric,” against its southern neighbor. In response to Kim’s actions, South Korea mentioned North Korea’s desperation as “stemming from the insecurity of the failed Kim Jong Un regime.” This comment demonstrates that North Korean credibility has diminished, and that even aggressive actions are perceived as another form of Kim’s self-isolationist policies.
Following these incidents, inter-Korean relations grew even more tense with the North Korean claim that South Korea sent over drones to scatter anti-North Korea propaganda leaflets, an action that South Korea has not yet confirmed nor denied. In response to the drones, Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, warned Seoul that continuing to send these drones would culminate in a “horrible disaster.” These drones aren’t a completely novel phenomenon, with South Koreans previously sent over balloons full of propaganda material in clear criticism of Kim, but also included USB sticks exposing South Korean popular culture, such as K-pop songs and K-dramas.
On their own, these actions by North Korea may not be enough to warrant concern, particularly due to their small military might in comparison with that of the combined efforts of South Korea and the US, but in conjunction with their behavior towards other authoritarian powers, it is apparent that North Korea is craving some spotlight, which is unsettling.
This spotlight has shifted from the Korean Peninsula and remarks by Kim within the confines of North Korea to an area of the world everyone is watching closely—Ukraine and Russia.
This past June, Putin and Kim had a summit focused on strengthening their alliance against the US and its allies, discussed arms cooperation despite the G7’s warning, and signed a Cold War era-esque “strategic partnership” based on their opposition to the Western liberal world order. Russia again demonstrated its commitment to North Korea in its March veto of a UN resolution reviewing UN sanctions on North Korea.
The bond between Russia and North Korea only increased with recent reports by Ukrainian military intelligence that North Korean soldiers are now fighting with Russian troops on the ground. This marks a shift in North Korean tactics from merely being a supplier of weapons to Russia, to being a supplier of personnel. North Koreans reportedly have been killed in this war of attrition, despite both Pyongyang’s and Moscow’s staunch denial. The aforementioned “strategic partnership” between Russia and North Korea means that, according to Seoul’s defense minister, “the issue of deploying regular troops is highly likely.” The West shows concern about what exactly North Korea will get in return for its sacrifice, beyond allowing North Korea to test weapons, gain combat experience, and bolster its relations with a powerful actor.
Along with a strengthening Russia-North Korea relationship is the increasingly concerning swap of weapons, supplies, and information between the “quartet of chaos,” composed of China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, countries openly against the liberal Western order. Within this quartet, North Korea appears the weakest, with little to offer the others strategically, unlike Iran, China, and Russia. In the past, North Korea has supplied weapons to groups such as Hamas and the Houthis, but it is supported more than it supports, particularly in its unequal economic relationship with China.
“The slow and irreversible breakdown of the Kim dynasty” is what Kim is trying to prevent with his increasingly hostile actions towards South Korea, and in his buddying-up with major powers who have issues with the West. Internal strife within North Korea and global attention focused elsewhere has placed Kim’s actions and words at the bottom of the newsfeed.
It is critical to monitor the moves of North Korea and hope that Kim’s fight for relevance on a crowded world stage doesn’t lead to a hasty decision for which the international order isn’t properly prepared.