Testing NATO’s Resolve: Russia’s Drone Incursions and the Future of European Security

Prime Minister of Poland Donald Tusk speaks at a cabinet meeting following Russia’s drone incursions on September 10th, 2025.

Image by Aleksander Kalka.

“It’s time for the leadership of Russia to understand that the attempt to rebuild Europe’s last empire is doomed to fail.”  

These were the words delivered during a national statement by Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski, following a series of airspace violations by the Russian Federation on the morning of September 9th.   

According to NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte, 19 of the 415 Russian drones directed at Ukraine that day were identified in Polish airspace. This unprecedented breach triggered a coordinated NATO response involving Polish F-16s, Dutch F-35s, German Patriot missile systems, and Italian AWACS surveillance aircraft.  

Russian drone incursions over the Polish border are not a new occurrence. So, what distinguishes this moment?  

Poland’s response on September 9th marks the first time Russian drones were intercepted in NATO airspace as enemy targets. Within hours, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk invoked Article IV, pressing allies to address what no longer looks like an accident, but a deliberate test of the alliance’s resolve. Soon, images surfaced of NATO representatives surrounding Tusk, evaluating the extent to which Russia had threatened Poland’s security – and whether a military response should follow. 

Two days later, Mark Rutte announced the launch of “Eastern Sentry,” an operation to bolster defenses along the alliance’s eastern flank, though the full scope of this initiative remains evolving. 

With the arguably lacking efforts of the Trump administration in securing peace negotiations with the Kremlin, data from the Institute of the Study of War clearly shows an increase in Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine beginning in mid-2025. The trespassing into Polish territory, in addition to the three Russian fighter jets identified in Estonian airspace on September 19th, all reflect an emboldened Russia testing the limits of NATO’s surface unity.  

This is a reminder that assertive rhetoric without concrete action only reinforces perceptions of Europe’s weakening resolve. The crucial question now is whether NATO can translate words of condemnation and symbolic military maneuvers into credible deterrence. Without clear, unified, and forceful action, Russian incursions over NATO territory risk becoming routine provocations rather than triggers for a decisive response. 

When faced between the choice of a direct confrontation with NATO and capitalizing on transatlantic tensions, Russia will choose the latter. After all, this very idea makes up the backbone of Russia’s hybrid warfare doctrine. As the Russian government takes note of the growing transatlantic rifts, with Donald Trump’s consistent remarks that the war in Ukraine is a European—not an American— responsibility, these incursions are likely a test of NATO strength as it lacks confident support from its traditional American counterpart.  

To say that these recent sightings of Russian drones and fighter jets in NATO skies is an inflection point might seem an overstatement to some. But how Europe responds to these incursions, and the degree to which Operation Eastern Sentry deters future Russian aggressions, will undeniably shape the credibility of NATO’s deterrence posture and set the tone for European security in the coming decade. 

This moment, if mishandled, risks confirming to the Kremlin that NATO’s red lines are flexible, rather than firm.