Qatar: A Stunning Reversal of Fortune
Robert Cole
The Biden administration’s recent decision to suspend US support for the Saudi led coalition in Yemen probably does not automatically make most people think about Qatar. A tiny Gulf state with a population of less than three million, few people in the West likely think about it at all. Yet with the election of Joe Biden as American president, and particularly with his course change on Yemen, few countries have gained more in such a short span. Only a few months ago, Qatar’s position in the Middle East was less than ideal. Under embargo by four of its regional allies, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Egypt, it was being forced to turn to Iran and Turkey for investment. Now it finds itself released from the embargo, a more diversified economy and a potential regional power broker. How did this happen?
First, it is important to understand the regional dynamics it exists within. The Middle East has four major Muslim powers, namely Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran. While much ink has been spilled in the contention between Saudi and Iran, all four are constantly vying for regional influence and have competing interests, particularly since the Arab Spring in 2011. The uprisings themselves are where Qatar enters the picture. The Qatari government supported many of the anti-government groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood that took to the streets that year, in stark contrast to its conventional allies in the Saudi-led faction. It is important to note though that when Yemen erupted into violence in 2014, it stood with the Saudis in intervening on behalf of government forces. However, its cozy relationship with proponents of the Arab Spring such as the Muslim Brotherhood and its ties to Iran resulted in the Egyptian and Saudi-led embargo beginning in 2017. This left an extremely messy political situation, where Qatar was at once aligned with the Saudis against the Houthis in Yemen, with the Turks in supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, and in relations with Iran over a few commercial and political issues. Tacit American support for the anti-Qatar embargo essentially held the whole situation at a standstill, consigning the tiny Gulf state to an unenviable political position.
Then came the 2020 US presidential election. President Trump had invested heavily in a relationship with Saudi Arabia, which along with the kingdom’s poor track record on democracy and human rights left it with few friends in the Democratic Party. Faced with the prospect of a US administration much less likely to be permissive of its bad behavior and fearing a Qatari embrace of Iran, the Saudis and their allies ended the embargo on Qatar shortly before President Biden was sworn into office. This was the first major win and it brought an added bonus: economic independence. Before the embargo, Qatar was effectively dependent on its Arab neighbors for basic goods such as milk, but the extended suspension of trade forced it to become self-sufficient, thereby removing a political bludgeon from the Saudi arsenal. The less pro-Saudi presidency also meant a curtailing of American support for the coalition in Yemen, announced at the beginning of February. The implication here is that major arms sales to the UAE and the Saudis will come under greater scrutiny from American officials, but the decision very significantly does not affect Qatar, a country that still has a stake in Yemen, as we previously noted.
Qatar then has a trinity of advantages in 2021 that could make it a serious regional player. Economically, it escaped a damaging embargo and diversified its economy. Militarily, it picked up an advantage in arms supply from the US and made itself appealing to a new administration looking to put some distance between itself and the Saudi/Emirati coalition. It enjoys good relations with Iran, a key target of US diplomacy, without becoming an Iranian proxy. Freed from the thrall of any one regional hegemon and possessing a strong hand to play, Qatar could be a serious power broker in the Middle East and a valuable ally for years to come.