Resurgent Threats from Central Command
As wars rage in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip while tensions persist in the South Pacific, it has been the prerogative of US security policy to begin disentanglement from the War on Terror. The Islamic State was largely defeated in 2019, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan was completed in August 2021. This trend is certainly a defensible one, and it is still too early to adopt a position of urgency on its reversal, but attention must remain on a combination of developments that are not likely to subside.
Islamic militants have been advancing across West Africa, causing close to 38,000 deaths in the past seven years, according to the Wall Street Journal. As they occupy villages and regions, they successfully destabilize the country and cultivate the grievances of various groups, weakening the governments that have the support of the US in counterterrorism.
The resulting coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger merely breed further terrorism. For example, after the military coup in Niger last year, the US was forced to evacuate and is now regrouping in nations along the Gulf of Guinea. The word “regroup” is merely a cover for the reality that the US is losing ground while Islamic militants, specifically Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, advance.
According to the same article, the US was forced to evacuate drones from a $110 million base constructed just five years ago. As the US cannot provide security aid to such military governments, they merely turn to Russia for aid. Russian-provided mercenaries from the Wagner Group then proceed to ravage West African villages and commit atrocities, which allows militant groups to foment discontent and recruit more fighters and resources to their cause. Furthermore, through its support, Russia is able to create an anti-West posture in the region. For instance, due to its being the former colonial power there, France is technically the coalition leader on counterterrorism in West Africa, but following the military coups, it too has been forced to evacuate from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Even as the US and France consolidate into Benin and the Ivory Coast, it would appear that stemming the spread of Islamic militants in West Africa is a losing battle.
Meanwhile, according to another article in the Wall Street Journal, the US has reached an agreement with Iraq to withdraw troops by the end of 2026. As has been noted, it has been a widely-supported prerogative over the past several years to decrease American commitments in the Middle East. However, similar to the developments in West Africa, the theme that is not emphasized enough is that the reason for American evacuation is because of the influence already possessed by militant groups in Iraq. Pro-Iranian militia groups hold considerable influence within the Iraqi political and security apparatus and have been pressuring for the end of the US-Iraqi coalition.
Therefore, it would appear from this perspective that the US is not in a position to completely disengage from its wars against militant Islam. Yet, to adopt an even broader perspective, it is clear that the West’s influence is being expelled from multiple directions, whether it be Ukraine, Iran’s Axis of Resistance, or China in the South Pacific. As Europe continues to struggle building its military establishment, the notion that the US can “shift attention,” “refocus,” “consolidate elsewhere,” or in the case of West Africa, “regroup,” is a luxury that can no longer be considered an option. The only option is the continued expansion of military influence, expenditure of resources, and increased rather than decreased commitments.