Russia in Donbass: Europe’s Most Wanted

Jay Ramesh

In November 2013, protests rocked Ukraine, leading to unpopular president Viktor Yanukovych fleeing the country. Over 7 years later, the country is perennially fighting against Russian-backed separatists in the Donbass region of Eastern Ukraine. 

The conflict has largely settled into a stalemate, but tensions are rapidly flaring up as Russia has begun amassing troops, tanks, and artillery in a bold display of force on the Ukrainian border. Even if it may be a bluff, the US and NATO have been quick to respond, and both sides are pooling their chips together in anticipation of a Russian Full House.

Though the conflict in Ukraine hasn’t flared up recently until now, over 10,000 have died and thousands more have been wounded. Most western analysts believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has purposely been drawing out conflict in attempts to destabilize the pro-Western government of Ukraine, which it sees as a threat to its interests. Although Russia isn’t directly involved in the fighting, the conflict has turned into a US-Russian proxy war, with both sides arming their local pawns in the conflict.

The buildup is likely part of a larger trend by Putin to test the limits of the Biden administration, as well as reassert its dominance on the world stage. NATO scrambled jets 10 separate times on March 29, 2021 as an unusually large number of Russian military aircraft started flying close to NATO airspace. 3 days before that, Russian nuclear submarines surfaced and punched through a thick ring of ice in the Arctic circle, the first time in Russian naval history.

All these maneuvers are aimed at drawing international attention to Russia’s military capabilities, and conveniently away from the poisoning of Putin’s political rival Alexander Navalny. However, the buildup along the Ukrainian border is different. It’s almost like a game of chess, and Putin just moved his bishop to pin the US’s knight in Ukraine.

President Biden has already shown that he will be tougher on Russia than his predecessor Trump was. At the beginning of March 2021, he approved a $125 million arms deal to Ukraine, supplementing Ukrainian anti-air and anti-tank capabilities. US national security advisor Jake Sullivan affirmed that the US will stand with Ukraine and protect its territorial integrity, and Biden looks ready to counter any blow from the Underwear Poisoner (Putin).

These aren’t just empty words. The American military command in Europe (EUROCOM) has officially raised its threat level to imminent crisis, up from potential crisis, and two US warships have been dispatched to the black sea in a show of force. Many in Washington believe that although there’s no clear evidence of an imminent attack, the unusual concentration of troops along the border could signal an escalation of violence in Ukraine, if not an outright Russian intervention.

There are several possible reasons and consequences of this intervention. In the everlasting chess game between Russia and NATO, the buildup could simply be Russian attempts to probe NATO’s willingness to intervene in Ukraine, and Biden’s tolerance of foreign aggression. It could also be a distraction from Putin’s domestic political crisis over the poisoning of Navalny. It’s no coincidence that Putin spearheads aggressive foreign policy during a dip in his approval rating, as the strongman effect of standing up to the West wins the hearts and minds of many. 

Russia could also be actually preparing for an invasion of Ukraine, but this course of action is extremely unlikely as NATO presents a significant military deterrent to any direct Russian action in Ukraine. Although this did not stop Russia from annexing Crimea in 2014, it appears that NATO has learned to put its money where its mouth is and match all Russian military flexing. 

Regardless of who brings the bigger piece to the gun show, an all-out war in Ukraine isn’t really in anyone’s best interests (except for maybe a few radical separatists). Russia’s military buildup has attracted the eyes and scorn of NATO, but it’s more than likely an aggressive probe to see what a potential NATO response to conflict would look like. Internationally, all eyes are on Ukraine for the first time in years, and Putin is once again Europe’s most wanted troublemaker.