Scotland the Brave, Scotland the Independent?
Jennings Dixon
Everyone wants to go to Scotland these days but are the Scots happy to have them? Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, is taking a vocal stand against other world leaders from entering. In early January, former U.S. president Trump contemplated jetting off to Scotland to play a few rounds of golf instead of going to the inauguration; Sturgeon dismissed any of those ideas. Just this week, UK prime minister Boris Johnson decided to take a trip up north from Downing Street, and Sturgeon was less than thrilled. Sturgeon called his visit non-essential, but Johnson and the rest of his Conservative Party think otherwise.
An independent Scotland has sounded more mythical than the unicorn, but recent years have given slight hope to the possibility. For years a distrust and distaste against Westminster has grown in Scotland. Scots were concerned that the government in London was not properly representing Scotland. This irritation reached its zenith in 2014 when Scotland held an independence referendum. Ultimately Scots voted 55-45% against the independence referendum. Major issues such as economic and trade policy as well as maintaining European Union (EU) membership played integral roles in the decision.
Scotland’s driving force of staying in the UK was to cling to the myriad benefits of the EU. However that all changed in 2016 when former Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the UK planned to withdraw from the EU (#brexit). Scotland overwhelmingly voted against Brexit. The formal withdrawal was finalized only last year with Johnson at the helm. The Scottish government continues to worry that lacking EU membership will leave the country worse off.
Then 2020 hit. We all know what that means. Since March, Johnson has been notorious for being reactive rather than proactive in his COVID-19 response. The UK currently ranks fifth and fourth in the world by cases and deaths, respectively. Sturgeon has been a staunch critic of Johnson’s policies and has called for more action and support. Earlier this month she announced a new lockdown for Scotland, as a new strain of the virus is accounting for almost half of recent cases. Current polls show a majority of Scots disapprove of Johnson’s handling of the pandemic while also supporting the choice to leave the UK. This is a sizable shift from 2014.
In an attempt to save face, Johnson jetted up to Scotland this week, visiting a hospital in Glasgow to promote vaccine distribution. Sturgeon staunchly opposes his trip; it violates new lockdown orders and appears to be an attempt to reconcile with Scotland. He is worried about Scotland’s growing disdain for how he has handled the pandemic and old feelings of independence. Johnson dismissed rumors about a new referendum, promising that he is only concerned about getting the virus under control. That is just not the case.
In May, Scotland holds local elections for seats in the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood. Sturgeon’s party, Scottish National Party (SNP) is the leading proponent of an independent Scotland. According to recent polls, SNP is slated for a big win in May. If that prediction comes to fruition, then SNP may have a shot at winning a majority in Holyrood, which would mean prioritizing the passing of a new referendum. Sturgeon has said already that she is devising a roadmap for a new legal independence referendum regardless of Johnson and Westminster's consent.
For the past several years Scotland has been inching closer and closer to independence. With a mix of Brexit and the current COVID-19 crisis, Scots have been feeling less inclined to trust the UK government for making its own decisions. Sturgeon is a strong leader with a clear focus. She understands her people and what they want, and she has the capacity to make change. It’s possible that within the next year the world has a new country to add to its list, and we’ll all have to update our globes. But whatever happens, I think it’s safe to say that the United Kingdom isn’t as united as it once was.