Sino-Russian Interactions in Central Asia
Robert Cole
Central Asia is probably one of the least discussed areas in international relations, yet it could play a central role in the politics of the 21st century. This is primarily because it is so central. Located between the great powers of China, India, and Russia, it is likely to be a point of major development as each seeks to expand its economic and political influence. For now, India is confined by the Himalayas and has limited connections to northern parts of the region such as Kazakhstan. China however has in recent years begun to look west, into Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, many of which it sees as critical to the larger Belt and Road Initiative, as well as major gas suppliers. Russia, for its part, has presented the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as its own hegemonic economic and political union, though it has in many ways become more of a political rather than economic sphere, an acquiescence to the dominance of the Chinese in terms of trade.
The present system of Chinese economic dominance and Russian political dominance is premised on continued cordial relations between Moscow and Beijing, something that should not be taken for granted. Sino-Russian cooperation is premised on shared interests, primarily an opposition to the western-led world order and an increasingly interconnected economic relationship. Given the extremely concentrated control Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping hold over national political and economic power, changes in leadership in either state could disrupt the personal relationship they have cultivated. Additionally, the entire relationship is premised on Chinese disinterest in dominating regional politics, which given its present relationship with the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, is no certain thing.
For the US and its allies, separating these two key opponents of democracy should factor more heavily into decisions to level broad sanctions against either. Alienation from the west pushes the two closer together, and so alternatives should be found where possible. US decisions to oppose developments like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany should also be considered more in the context of Sino-Russian relations, since separating Russia and Europe only forces Russia to turn east.