The Balkan Tinderbox: Is Trump a Match?
Few European leaders have been as giddy about Trump's election as Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic. While visiting Baku for the COP 29 global climate change conference, Vucic told reporters that Donald Trump’s victory has “brought hope to the world.”
A few days after Trump’s victory was announced, the two (self-proclaimed strongmen) shared a phone call, which Vucic claimed was “very cordial” and also noted that Trump “knew many things about Serbia,” (he even mentioned Serbia’s sports successes!).
Vucic took this opportunity to express his desire to work closely with the Trump administration and improve US-Serbian relations in all areas. What might that look like?
Disclaimer: Any sort of claim about Trump's future moves in the Balkans would be speculation. However, we can draw from his actions, attitudes, and his last appointments to try and guess how the next four years might shake-up. It's also important to recognize that times have changed since Trump took office in 2016. On February 24, 2022, Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine, sparking an ongoing war of attrition and rattling the region. Democratic backsliding in states such as Serbia and Hungary has accelerated. Moves have been made to actualize Serbian nationalist sentiments.
Decades after the official end of the wars in Yugoslavia - the region remains a tinderbox of tensions. In recent years, Serbia’s government and Serbian nationalists across the Balkans have continued their efforts to consolidate power. On June 9th, 2024, the Serbian Government and the Government of the Republic of Srpska (the majority ethnically Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina) assembled. Together they drafted the “Declaration of the Protection of National and Political Rights and the Common Future of the Serbian People.”
The declaration raises many red flags: it makes a clear distinction between Serbs and other nationalities represented in its state bodies and refers to Kosovo as an “inalienable part of Serbia.” The document also calls on international actors to revisit the Dayton Agreement, which established the new government order in Bosnia and Herzegovina. During talks about Dayton, Milorad Dodik, President of the Republic of Srpska, has mentioned the unification of Serbia and the Srpska, to further pan-Serbian ambitions.
Critics are worried a Trump presidency may upset this delicate situation. Trump's envoy to Kosovo-Serbia relations and staunch supporter, Richard Grenell, has made himself close with Vucic. In 2023, Vucic decorated Grenell with the “Order of the Serbian Flag,” an extremely high honor.
A year later, Grenell opposed the adoption of a UN resolution designating July 11th as an international day of reflection and commemoration of the Srebrenica Genocide. The Srebrenica Genocide, which claimed the lives of 8,372 men and boys in Bosnia and Herzegovina across 6 days in 1995, is continuously denied by Serbian state-controlled media.
Grenell also helped facilitate business talks between the Serbian government and the Trump family. This past May, the Serbian government approved a contract with Jared Kushner (Trump’s combination son-in-law and senior advisor), pushing forward plans to build a luxury hotel on the grounds of the former Yugoslavia Ministry of Defense in Belgrade. Ironically, the defense complex was bombed in 1999 by US-backed NATO forces, as a result of Serbia’s campaign against Kosovo. In addition to a grand hotel, the proposed development also includes retail space, housing units, and (don’t worry) a memorial complex and museum dedicated to the lives lost during the bombings.
Trump's former ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, is a supporter of a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia. This proposed exchange would transfer the ethnically Serbian northern region of Kosovo to Serbia, and Serbia’s ethnically-Albanian Presevo Valley to Kosovo. The notion of the swap is highly controversial. Proponents hail it as a practical solution to end a decade-long stalemate between the states (the term “state” depends on who you ask). Some opponents view it as a step backward, believing a swap negates the idea that people of different ethnicities can live together peacefully, and promotes further tensions. There are also fears that it could set a dangerous precedent for the Republic of Srpska, which is itching to separate from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The Biden administration has responded to corruption and revisionism in the Republika Srpska through a series of individual sanctions imposed on Dodik and his closest allies. On November 6th, 2024, the U.S. expanded these sanctions, targeting Vladamir Perisic, an ally of Dodik and the director of Prointer ITSS company. The U.S. Treasury Department claims he has utilized this company to facilitate Dodik’s ongoing corruption. These sanctions came the day Trump’s presidency was officially called. It's unclear if Trump will roll back these measures, but the possibility remains on the table.
Much remains to be seen. Trump’s warmer relations with Moscow may push Serbian leadership even deeper into Putin’s pocket. Trump may also largely ignore the region, if he doesn't view it as a pressing or strategic matter, potentially giving more influence to the EU. It seems doubtful that even though Trump has voiced his skepticism about NATO, there will be any serious NATO troop withdrawals from the region. Perhaps he will take a stronger economic stance on negotiations in the region, pushing concerns of nationalist tensions aside.
In a region where history casts dark shadows and scars remain tender, Trump’s return to power could reignite old flames or simply leave the Balkan tinderbox to smolder—only time will tell which spark catches first.