The City of Missiles
Joshua O’Brien
Last week, Iran revealed the existence of “missile city,” an underground Revolutionary Guard base filled with missiles, likely to be one of several. Commentators have been quick to point to this as another complication in the possible American renewal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Certainly, the video footage of the base does nothing to ease tensions in the region.
When the JCPOA was negotiated under Obama, it made no provisions on missiles. Instead, it focused on the development of a nuclear warhead, to prevent the acquisition of a nuclear weapon regardless of whether means of delivery existed. The JCPOA, in my opinion, provided one of the most solid international arms control regimes to date, in terms of nuclear weapons. But missiles are their own problem.
On September 14, 2019, twenty cruise missiles destroyed Saudi Arabian oil installations in an attack that UN investigators have concluded was launched by the Iranian Air Force. While Iran continues to deny the attack, which the Yemeni Houthis claim credit for, the attack still illustrates the potential of Iranian missile forces. And it also illustrates why Gulf states have criticized the JCPOA for excluding missiles from its controls.
The inclusion of missile provisions would have made an already difficult deal nearly impossible. Six years ago, this was an acceptable concession to ensure Iran did not acquire a nuclear weapon. But today, the Iranian missile program is large and fairly sophisticated. It can be used to deliver conventional munitions to targets across the region—in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or Israel—with often little advanced warning. This allows Iran to pursue a policy of destabilization to advance its goals, at a much lower strategic cost than the threat of nuclear capability.
It also shows why renewing the JCPOA might not be a policy worth the cost for America and its allies. Regardless of whether or not the Agreement’s provisions are in force, and Iran is prevented from breaking out a nuclear weapon, it will still have and maintain a missile program capable of destabilizing the region. Cruise missiles will be able to fly under the radar to deliver surprise attacks, and ballistic missiles will be able to strike distant targets. Iran will still have a capable and legitimate arsenal of weapons. The city of missiles should remind American policymakers that the strategic landscape has changed since the Obama years, and restoring the legacy of a once shining policy is likely not the most strategic option for the neighbors and states who have the most to lose in the region.