The Greater Fool in International Politics

By Joshua O’Brien

jobrien3@live.unc.edu

A greater fool writes of greater fools.

The greater fool is a financial term. It refers to the idea that it is always possible to make a profit on a security, regardless of if it is overvalued, by selling to the greater fool--that is, someone who is even more gullible and hoping to make a profit. The theory is paradoxical--while investors try to profit off of greater fools, they have to avoid being the greatest fool themselves.

To be a greater fool is to tarnish your credibility in finance. But in international politics? I am not so sure.

Of course, I will not delude myself into believing that every international politician acts in good faith. I have read enough of the bargaining model to know that many politicians and policymakers think in zero-sum terms about power. To pursue security and power is to ensure you are better than the other. That is the normal conception of back-stabbing politics, and it has merit, but it has yet to earn my wholesale subscription.

For clarity, I am a public policy major, not a political science major. Which is to say while I read often about politics and the political system, my driver is policy—not power. And when I think about international politics, I obviously consider the intersection of policy. International agreements, trade, and work through institutions such as the World Health Organization or the Universal Postal Union.

In international politics, the greater fool is the person who seeks to make the world better. Perhaps they are driven somewhat by power, but their ego comes from the thought that they can do better where others have failed. It sounds idealistic, but I think these people exist at least in part. And I think that they have actually made impactful change. The Helsinki Final Act, the creation of the United Nations and the World Health Organization. And yes, perhaps, even the UPU, to bring mail to all.

Perhaps I am the greater fool for believing in these people and their existence. Perhaps international politics is just a zero-sum game of power and greater fools are nothing but optimistic fish swimming against a tide of cynicism. But even if they are, I would like to count myself among them.