The Houthis: Maritime Security and Economic Stability
Since October, the news of Houthi rebels attacking commercial ships has made headlines, raising economic, geopolitical, and security concerns for nations’ crews passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea. Although recently, the press coverage of the attacks has decreased, the issue is still an active one, with the Houthis sinking a British-owned cargo ship carrying 21,000 metric tons of fertilizer and thereby sparking wider environmental concerns about this ongoing maritime security issue. However, at the forefront is the impact these attacks will have on trade in the critical maritime passage, as well as broader maritime security impacts in the region.
The Houthis, an Iranian-backed political and religious rebel group, shifted their attacks in November from US and US-allied warships to commercial ships supposedly affiliated with Israel. Those who have followed the Houthis’ actions will know that this shift in focus is not random. Since 2014, the Houthis have been fighting a civil war in Yemen against a Saudi-backed government that is also backed, though less directly, by the US and Britain, sparking anger and wider anti-western sentiment in the country. This sentiment is echoed in their anti-Israeli stance and anger over the war in Gaza.
The attacks on ships, while less common but still present before, increased last October with the Israel-Hamas War. The Houthis claim their targets on shipping are Israeli-owned, flagged, or operated vessels. However, Houthi attacks targeting commercial ships carrying civilian crews violate maritime norms and international law, with non-military targets attacked, detained, and endangered in the process. Many of the crew are also international, coming from Romania, Mexico, and the Philippines, and thus not directly connected to the Middle East conflict. The British-owned Galaxy Leader was one ship attacked by Houthis on November 19, and their crew is still held captive by the Houthis. Arsenio Dominguez, secretary-general of the International Maritime Organization, has since called for their release and for “collective action to fortify the safety of those at sea.”
Beyond civilian concerns, often overshadowing the media, are concerns over the rerouting of trade that typically goes through the Red Sea, heading towards either the Suez Canal in the North or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the South. The location targeted by the Houthis is prime - 12-15% of world trade passes through the Strait, and 30% of that is global container traffic. Further, the Suez is a major artery for energy transport, with more than one million barrels of crude oil and 8% of liquified natural gas passing through the Suez Canal each day. These trends raise concerns over the possibility of another European energy crisis like in 2022 or the shipping delay seen in 2020 with COVID-19 slowing maritime shipping services. For now, there hasn’t been a noticeable harm in the global economy from the attacks, with Chinese shipping still going through the Suez. However, the long-term consequences could be much more dire.
In response to attacks on commercial ships, countries and shipping companies have begun rerouting their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds up to two weeks on the journey, and around 3000 extra miles. Based on research from the London Stock Exchange Group, for a container vessel to travel from Shanghai to Rotterdam using this new route, it would cost 35% more and add an extra eight days to the voyage. To try and deter an attack on their ships, some crew and captains have been using a system sending messages such as “allchinesecrew” for protection.
Essentially, the Houthis are utilizing two military strategies increasingly common by non-state actors with limited naval powers. First, the Houthis have employed a tactic of Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/D2) in their control of the Red Sea, at least in the area near Yemen and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, by preventing perceived adversary ships from entering this key sea lane of communication for both commerce and naval maneuvers that is the Red Sea. Further, the Houthis are utilizing a form of commerce raiding in their disruption of commerce and logistics with attacks on merchant ships.
The US and the West have issued a response to these attacks, but they have been criticized for failing to halt the assaults. In mid-January, the US and UK, as well as 14 other nations, led a campaign to deter attacks by striking drone, missile, and storage sites, along with other critical Houthi infrastructure in Yemen. Issues regarding reliable intelligence on the Houthi arsenal, as well as the lack of success by the coalition, have led some to question the strength of the US campaign. Others, however, believe that a US-led coalition should focus on Yemen solving the problem with a political statement and that US involvement will risk a wider regional conflict. However, it is unlikely that Houthis will halt their attacks until the war in Gaza is over or has reached a cease-fire, a stance confirmed by the Houthis themselves in February.
As for now, maritime security in the Middle East is tumultuous at best. Disruptions in shipping, crews fearing for their safety, and criticisms for and against Western military response have made the situation a complex one. The Houthis’ attacks also further illustrate the rising tensions in the Middle East and the larger criticisms against the war in Gaza.