The North
Joshua O’Brien
We all know that the Earth is warming unsustainably, and the polar bears are dying. Yes, it’s morbid, but it’s true. Despite this, the Arctic is not understood in popular imaginations as an area of interest for foreign policy. Afterall, there is not much up there; you need an icebreaker to navigate it, and for half of the year it promises the world’s worst case of seasonal depression to any mariner who dares to visit. But as climate change slowly advances, this will change.
In fact, it has already started to change. In the last five years, foreign ministries have commented more frequently on the Arctic, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noting the region will “present new opportunities” (Hansler, 2019). China has proclaimed itself a “near-Arctic state” in strategy, and has designs for a “Polar Silk Road,” which would cut the cost of shipping to Europe by a third. Russia, a country with the widest stretch of Arctic coastline, has re-emphasized its Northern Fleet in recent strategies.
This narrative makes the Arctic seem like it is already devolving into chaos. It is not. For the past couple of years, the Arctic Council has been able to maintain the region’s peace and stability. There are no immediate border disputes in the region, though international litigation on several sea borders and Exclusive Economic Zones is ongoing. Further, shipping across the Northeast Passage and Northwest Passage have only occurred a couple times, typically with icebreakers, as these passes are not consistently ice-free at this time. It is expected that by 2050, more routine shipping through the region will be possible. Additionally, many countries do not have the infrastructure or resources in place to address the Arctic. The United States, in particular, lacks a strong icebreaker fleet and has limited search and rescue capability north of the Bering Strait. Regardless, the region will become more accessible, and what is now a small issue will become a bigger one.
This geography, and its dramatic shifts, is why the United States, Canada, and other Arctic countries should begin thinking about their resources and policy in the region more in-depth. Of course, I do not make policy for either government, but in particular Arctic states should come to long-term limits on shipping through the region to respect the environment, prevent disasters such as oil spills, and prevent further exacerbations of the climate crisis. It may not be a major issue now, but in the decades to come, I trust that the dark, sleepy Arctic will get more international attention.
Hansler, Jennifer. “Pompeo: Melting sea ice presents 'new opportunities for trade'” CNN, May 7, 2019. cnn.com/2019/05/06/politics/pompeo-sea-ice-arctic-council/index.html.