The Romanian Presidential Election
On November 24th, Romania held the first round of its presidential election. Voters are set to return to the polls to vote in parliamentary elections on December 1st and for the second round of presidential elections in the coming weeks. The series of elections will reveal if Romania joins the growing trend of Europe’s shift to the right and Russia’s growing influence in Eastern European election results, and so far, that appears to be the case.
Calin Georgescu, a far-right populist, surprisingly garnered the most votes in the first round and will advance to the second round of the presidential election, despite polls predicting he would not win more than 10% of the vote. Contrary to expectations, Georgescu came out ahead with almost 23% of the vote, followed by Elena Lasconi of the Save Romania Union party with nearly 20% of the vote. Current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party was eliminated in the first round of voting. This unexpected result means that for the first time in Romania’s post-communist history, the Social Democratic Party does not have a candidate advancing to the second round.
Georgescu’s preliminary success is even more unusual because he did not have the support of a political party behind him in this election and mainly ran his campaign on TikTok. Many have credited his popularity to his promise to “restore Romania’s dignity” and his opposition to international organizations like NATO and the European Union. Economic conditions have also contributed to his victory. The country is facing a growing cost of living, the largest share of people at risk of poverty, the highest inflation rate, and the largest budget deficit in the EU.
Fears of external interference have called into question Georgescu’s surprise win. The Romanian Constitutional Court has ordered a recount of the election. External actors are alleged to have played an important role in the results of this election. The Supreme Defence Council has stated it has found evidence of interference by Russia.
Allegations of Russian interference are not a new phenomenon in European elections. Russian goals have been to expand its influence into Eastern Europe and weaken the power of the EU and NATO, especially as they incorporate more Eastern European countries. Recent elections in Moldova show this trend. Despite pro-Western President Sandu’s victory in the early November 2024 election, Russia reportedly funded pro-Russian factions and spread disinformation within the country in an effort to influence the results of the election in its favor. The vote on enshrining Moldova’s desire for EU membership in its constitution barely passed, a closer result than expected suggesting outside influence.
Russia’s growing influence in European elections, especially Romania’s election, is consequential to its relationship with Ukraine. Not only does Romania share a border with Ukraine, but it also hosts a strategic NATO military base. Georgescu has expressed his concerns with Romania’s ongoing relationship with NATO, calling it the “world’s weakest alliance,” and ending aid to Ukraine, despite Romania serving as a historical ally to Ukraine.
Upcoming parliamentary elections are set to see wins by the far-right and Romania’s shift toward the right has not occurred in isolation, especially in Europe. In September 2024, the far-right Freedom Party took power in the Austrian Parliament for the first time in its history and the far-right Alternative for Germany party gained significant regional election wins in Germany. The European Parliament election results that occurred earlier in June 2024 did not present as large a shift to the right as initially expected, but two far-right alliances have become the third and fourth largest groups in Parliament and the traditionally centrist parties have moved further right.
As Romanian voters return to the polls in the coming weeks, they will likely determine whether Romania follows the trend of other European countries to the right. The election may also impact Romania’s relationship with NATO and its longstanding ally Ukraine.