The US’s Yellow Light for Ukraine

Photo by Mathias Reding.

The Russia-Ukraine war has culminated in two and a half years of defense spending, hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of critical infrastructure and homes, and a political debate surrounding the role of the NATO Alliance, Russia, Ukraine, and Iran. 

And the war doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.

On Friday, September 13, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Joe Biden met to discuss a wide range of topics that included Ukraine, hinting at a potential decision that would permit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to fire the long-range missiles provided by NATO countries into Russian territory. It initially appeared the meeting signaled that the two leaders would choose to lift their restrictions on the missiles, but no such decision was made. 

The UK and the US disagree on this matter, and it must be a joint decision, as many of the components of the Storm Shadow Missile are manufactured in the US. Storm Shadow missiles are cruise missiles that can reach a target about 155 miles away, with the ability to penetrate Russian bunkers and other infrastructure, such as ammunition holdings. They have been successful in the past in targeting Russia’s Black Sea Naval Headquarters, stopping the Russian naval forces in their tracks.

Zelensky finds the inability of the West to decide on the course of action for the weapons as signaling cowardice, a nod to the US approach of similarly helping Israel. He believes air defense and long-range missiles can bring an end to this war, and that Ukraine’s current capabilities are not enough to turn the tide of the war. He also argues the asymmetric nature of the war, and that not having permission to hit Russian air attack bases leaves Kyiv essentially “fighting a war with one arm tied behind its back.” British officials agree, stating that Ukraine can’t fight effectively, with Starmer pointing out that Western support for Ukraine is critical in “this vital war of freedom.” 

The US sees it differently. 

The reason for the Western indecision, and Biden’s hesitation, is the legitimate fear of escalation in the war. Putin has issued a warning to the West that if they permit Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russian territory, there would be retaliation. Biden, and other high-ranking US officials, take that threat seriously. 

With the 2024 election less than two months away, Biden’s decision to delay making a definitive choice is strategic, especially given the criticism surrounding NATO’s spending on Ukraine, which has become a point of contention for the Biden-Harris administration.

Ignoring Putin’s threat could prove dire for NATO and the West, with a potential response from Moscow coming in the form of an attack on weapon supply points in Eastern Europe, such as a Polish airbase. An attack on Poland, a member of NATO, could trigger Article V of the North Atlantic Treaty governing NATO, and thus escalate the war in an unpredictable, unprecedented manner. 

The Pentagon also believes that allowing Ukraine to use these long-range weapons will not make a strategic difference on the battlefield. Moscow, anticipating such a decision, has already moved much of its infrastructure further into Russian territory, meaning that it might now be too late for the strikes to destroy anything or change the course of the war. Similarly, with the war in Ukraine being that of a War of Attrition, Russia has a huge population and manufacturing advantage over Ukraine, has built a coalition of support from other leaders, and now possesses the capability to launch Iranian-made drones. 

Many US officials see the risk of escalation as outweighing the military benefits, and believe that in authorizing these missiles to be shot, the US risks further depletion of its weapon reserves and takes on the financial burden at a time when the economy is at the forefront of many Americans’ minds. Each missile costs almost $1 million, which is no small price.

A decision could potentially be made at the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting, with a larger range of world leaders available to discuss this dilemma. As for now, however, Biden has made a strategic call to wait and hear the alternatives—and perhaps let Harris make the decision should she win the November election. However, the US’s hesitation—its “yellow light”—in authorizing Ukraine to use these long-range missiles might turn into a firm, unyielding red.