Germany: “Not at Peace but not at War”

Germany is at a crossroads. On September 29th, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that, “we are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either.” 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a harsh wake up call for the European Union and for individual states like Germany to push defense and security to the top of policy agendas. 

Since September 2025, Russia has engaged in an increased amount of drone incursions into NATO airspace. In early October, it was suspected that Russia was sending drones into Germany specifically. These drone sightings led to the shutdown of Munich airport and brought security to the forefront of German political discussion. 

Unlike other European Union and NATO countries that have strong militaries that can work within their countries, Germany is different. Currently, the country grapples with two problems. 

First, the constitution that the German military follows was written after World War II. Given Germany’s history with the Nazi party, there is a specific clause that denotes that the military cannot take “a key role in the country’s internal security.” This puts Germany at an interesting crossroads because delineating what warrants internal security is murky. Furthermore, German police have the competency to shoot down these drones, but do not currently possess the technology. While the constitution could be amended, this requires a two-third majority in the government that currently seems improbable given weak coalitions. 

Second, Germany aims to be a strong military power and meet its NATO active soldier requirement of 260,000 people by the early 2030s. Germany currently has only 183,000 people enlisted. To combat this gap, Germany has contended with the idea of conscription. Earlier this month, Germany decided that a mandatory questionnaire will be sent to all 18 year old men to gauge their willingness to join the military. This form will also be sent to women but will be optional. Additionally, all men who are 18 in July of 2027 will be required to go through a medical exam to test eligibility for duty. The intention behind these questionnaires is to have a list to refer to of eligible soldiers if war were to happen. A voluntary conscription model like this remains contentious for Germans. 

As Russia continues to break boundaries and test the limits of its power, Germany must reassess its current framework and plan for a future that lies on a moving pendulum of war and peace.