What’s Next For Syria?

Photo by Ahmed Akacha.

It seemed as though everyone had forgotten about Syria. Dictator Bashar al-Assad’s brutal rule, marked by political repression and violence against his own citizens, had largely faded away from the headlines as the 13-year civil war dragged on. But suddenly, on December 8th of 2024, rebel forces overwhelmed Damascus and Assad was forced to flee. So what happens now? The fall of the Assad regime presents a historic moment for Syria to reinvent not only itself, but its broader role in the region and on the world stage as well. With this great opportunity, however, there are certain risks. A new US administration, regional actors with varying geopolitical aspirations, and a diverse coalition of Syrian leadership, to name a few.

So why does this matter? For starters, Syria is an important strategic access point to the Mediterranean, notably for Russia. Occupied with their war in Ukraine, they were unable to provide much support to Assad. Iran was also too focused on conflicts with its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza to prevent Assad’s fall. Moving forward, the direction that new Syrian governance takes will somewhat determine the extent of continued Russian and Iranian influence.

From a humanitarian view, 6.2 million refugees around the world will be pressured to return to a devastated economy, where there is a lack of housing and infrastructure, ongoing violence, and a group with jihadist roots seeking legitimacy to govern.

This group is HTS, initially an affiliate of al-Qaeda but has since revoked, at least publicly, its formal ties to the terrorist organization. HTS rhetoric has been mostly positive, with promises of democratization and inclusivity of Syria’s many religious and ethnic minorities. However, they have also stated clearly that a formal constitution and presidential elections are still years off. This, according to Foreign Policy’s Zaid Al-Ali, is actually pretty reasonable; Syria is still territorially divided, many refugees have not returned or are internally displaced, and violence still persists in many parts. More coherence and stability will be needed before any substantive governance decisions are made or systems put in place.

HTS has also made clear that the international community will not be involved in the drafting of a new constitution, when the time comes. However, this is not to say that foreign governments, particularly in the Gulf, will not want some say in state building. If an Islamist state is the outcome, the promise of respect for minority groups is unlikely to hold.

There have already been some early warning signs pointing to this: the interim education ministry has proposed no longer teaching evolution or the Big Bang theory, and changing the phrase “Defending the nation” to “Defending Allah”. Of course, there are many Syrians who would welcome this change, but there is no doubt that Syria’s heterogeneous population will require reform in the democratic direction to function cohesively, not reform in the other direction.

From a US standpoint, there is a lot that can be done. Former President Biden could have removed the designation of HTS as a terrorist organization, but instead left it to the Trump administration. This means that sanctions relief may not be in Syria’s near future. Removing the terrorist designation from HTS will be a crucial first step, if it ever does occur, but it is reasonable to suspect that Trump will not want much to do with Syria’s reconstruction after that point anyway. While there may not be political motivations, there are certainly strategic reasons for Trump to consider engagement, such as preventing an Islamist state from gaining influence, reducing refugee pressures on European allies, and countering extremism through democracy.

The path forward for Syria will depend not only on US engagement, but also on the internal collaboration of opposing interests within a diverse Syrian society. This opportunity for growth and repair after such incredible devastation will not be easy, and it will ultimately be up to the Syrian people to decide the direction of their new country, once given the opportunity.