Who really won the 2024 Taiwan election?

With the end of Tsai Ing Wen's eight-year presidency, a new era is emerging in Taiwan. 

In the 2000s, Kuomintang (KMT) leadership under Ma Ying-Jeou strengthened relations between Taipei and Beijing. Then Tsai Ing-Wen took over, beginning an eight-year Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidency. As The New York Times noted, Ing-Wen's administration carefully tiptoed around ties with China while an emerging national identity implicitly challenged China's cross-strait dominance.

Tsai's "quiet pragmatist" attitude towards foreign policy reflected the deep fear running through the veins of the Taiwanese people. That same fear deeply bled into this year's contentious election, but subtle political changes are occurring. 

The popular discourse surrounding Taiwan emphasizes the election of a DPP president, Lai Ching-Te, which consequently extends DPP policies that advocate lessening economic dependence on Beijing. But the elections' unnoticed, arguably more significant consequence, is the emergence of the Taiwan People's Party, a third party that challenges the KMT, DPP binary.

 Lai Ching-Te did not win the election with a majority of the primary votes. The DPP actually received approximately 16% less of the vote than when DPP candidate Tsai Ing won with 56%  eight years ago, exemplifying a growing dissatisfaction with the establishment in Taiwan. Most of the DPP's lost votes went directly to the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), an emerging Populist party in Taiwan that speaks to young, middle-class voters. In the presidential election, KMT won 33.5%, the DPP won 40%, and the TPP won 26.5%. While you might see this as a clear win for the DPP, it's not.

President Lai Ching Te will face significant obstacles to implementing his policies because, in the election for Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan, the KMT gained the advantage. The KMT gained 14 seats in the assembly, with 52 seats overall, while the DPP had 51. According to the Center For Strategic and International Studies, the TPP won the remaining 8, meaning for legislative action to occur, the DPP or KMT will have to cooperate with the TPP.

The rise of the TPP has emerged out of growing disengagement with the established government amongst young Taiwanese people. Much of this can be attributed to TPP presidential candidate Ko-Wen Je's utilization of social media influence, as described in an article by The Diplomat. Ko-Wen Je's administrative campaign involved many social media influencers who grabbed the attention of disenfranchised young voters struggling with domestic issues such as housing prices. The Ko Wen-Je campaign's ability to garner support reflects the power of politically charged social media in today's increasingly digital society. Throughout history, the direction of young social movements has always led to political action, and Ko-Wen Je's campaign success solidifies this trend.

The DPP's ability to win the presidency despite attempted interference from Beijing demonstrates the larger narrative underscoring the national election: a strengthening indigenous identity. Lai Ching-Te has leaned close to "secessionist" ideas in the past. While he won't take concrete measures to advance those goals, he will want to push an agenda that generally decreases economic dependence on China and further perpetuates Taiwan's distinct democratic identity, which will antagonize China. To advance these policies, he must accumulate leverage in the legislature, and that will be decided by whom the TPP chooses to cooperate with.

Taiwan has been stuck in a middle ground between radicalism and complacency for decades. Constantly torn between the KMT and DPP, the Taiwanese have become somewhat disillusioned with hyper-partisan politics. In the face of these trends, most Taiwanese still remain highly critical of CCP influence. A recent Pew Research study identified a growing dissatisfaction with China and a growing national identity. But at the same time, part of the TPP's growing influence can be attributed to its hesitancy to echo the DPP's more radical pushes towards complete independence. Even within the DPP, politicians still carefully maneuver PRC pressure, avoiding direct or explicit challenges to Beijing's dominance. 

While Taiwan's attitudes are complex, one thing remains certain across all parties in light of the newest election results. The social trends we have seen in the past decade since the last KMT presidency have demonstrated with relative conviction that, while Taiwan is still afraid to provoke China, they are finished with the "one country, two system ideology." 

How this new administration will balance the internal discrepancies between partisan policy attitudes while responding to China's gray-zone tactics will be critical in the coming months. China will be highly reactive to Lai Ching-Te's decisions. The People's Liberation Army's signal balloons have already been spotted encroaching on Taiwanese borders throughout the election process, and Beijing recently coerced the tiny nation of Nauru to shift its allegiance to the PRC and cut ties with Taiwan as a separate entity. The Chinese government was also outspokenly critical of the U.S Department of State’s press release on the election results. China shows no sign of slowing its aggressive campaign to suppress Taiwan's growing global influence, both with military intimidation and political influence. 

I talked to my great-uncle who lives in Taipei about the prevailing political attitudes amongst the people of Taiwan. He described the atmosphere as leaning towards “political indifference,” especially among young people. Young Taiwanese voters no longer have a deep allegiance to the mainland, yet they also do not have a radical desire to be completely independent. In an article by the Taipei Times, youth leaders list economic and domestic issues as the main concern.

But young voters cannot remain in the middle ground when it comes to foreign policy forever. The TPP now finds itself directly caught in the crosshair between the KMT and DPP. Whether they decide to continue the "quiet pragmatist" narrative that prioritizes stability or to allow Lai Ching Te the opportunity to enact a more progressive stance will drastically shape the future of the Taiwan Strait. In a way, the young, disillusioned TPP voters are now the real power holders in Taiwan.