Conflict in Ukraine: Implications and Inferences

Zoe Hatsios

Since October of 2021, the crisis in Ukraine has been not-so steadily worsening. However, for many ordinary Americans and even scholars, conflict in Ukraine was not a topic of indulgence or mastery. The situation in the eastern country is not easily explained, but has vast implications for NATO members, including the United States.

Ukraine has held strategic value to Russia since prior to the age of the Soviet Union, and continuing to hold influence over the country signals a long-lasting dominance that Russia no longer exemplifies in other metrics. Without a loyal Ukraine, Russia’s modern sphere of influence – and potential to resume greatness – is faltered.

As a short overview, In 2014, a Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down over Ukrainian airspaces, and was later concluded to have been the result of a Russian missile. Prior to this episode, violence had been long erupting in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatist forces and the Ukrainian military after Putin annexed Crimea. Ukraine has experienced a large sum of cyberattacks from Russian computer sources causing immense damage. NATO has closely monitored the situation and despite Putin’s insistence of non-involvement, Russian troops have been located near the border and recently supplemented by missiles and heavy weaponry.

The current crisis deals with Russia’s demands and their implications on international relations. Putin is threatening a further invasion of Ukraine unless NATO makes multiple hefty concessions, including a halt to eastern expansion. Russia sees the possibility that Ukraine joins NATO as a major threat, and holds firm that the United States-led NATO pledged to cement eastern borders and not expand. However, there is a heated dispute about what actually happened in these late-20th-century conversations. Nevertheless, the slow invasion of Ukraine would have effects on the global order much larger than sanctions. If Russia militarily invades Ukraine, it would be a major act of self-preservation that would signal larger aims than just a border invasion. The peace of the “nuclear taboo” may come to an end, and great-power war could emerge. The United States is attempting to deter this from occurring with a sanctions regime. Given the more optimistic state of Biden-Putin talks, the hope for this to stay far from reality may be fulfilled.

If Ukraine affirms the decision to join NATO, there will be reconsiderations, but not for Putin. Russia will likely invade Ukraine immediately and initiate a war that no foreign power will want to touch. And, if Putin is successful, he will not only have made recent history but numerous new adversaries.