Tunisia: The Arab Spring Breathes its Last
Robert Cole
When Tunisia ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, it served as one of the leading catalysts of the Arab Spring, a wave of pro-democracy and anti-establishment movements across the Arabic speaking world and beyond. Tunisia has long been considered the shining example of the movement’s potential, being one of the few success stories from the uprisings to persist following the brutal reaction by regional powers in response to the movement. Today, that first spark of the Arab Spring is in danger of going out. In July, the current president Kais Saied ousted the Prime Minister and suspended Parliament in response to popular frustration of the perceived failings of the post-2011 government. While this move was popular with many in Tunisia, he quickly moved to greatly expand his own powers that have made many observers both inside and outside Tunisia increasingly concerned. Though he later appointed a new Prime Minister tasked with forming a cabinet, the Tunisian parliament remains suspended.
Most recently, Saied has moved to disband the Supreme Judicial Council, the body which oversees judges in Tunisia and one of the last bastions of political power outside of President Saied’s control. Many judges and several major political parties in Tunisia have made statements condemning the move, which many consider to be tantamount to a coup. It comes on the tail end of weeks of protests against the government’s handling of economic problems and the covid-19 pandemic, many of which have been brutally disbanded by security forces which themselves have become increasingly important for Mr Saied’s continued hold on power.
This moment is significant not only for its symbolic significance in the context of the Arab Spring, but also as a part of larger trends in North Africa and the world. As attested before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and Global Counterterrorism by Dr. Elie Abouaoun, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programs for the US Institute of Peace, Tunisia is still an extremely fragile and unconsolidated democracy that can quickly descend into chaos and repression. Its institutions do not have a solid base of legitimacy and could easily be overturned by a domineering figure like President Saied, bringing the country full circle back to pre-2011.
This is significant for several reasons beyond the obvious that democratic backsliding anywhere in the world is never good. Tunisia is a key part of the fight against terrorist groups that arose in the aftermath of the Arab Spring, particularly ISIS. Tunisia is the largest source of foreign fighters that have joined the group, which is tremendously concerning given the rise in Islamist attacks in West Africa as the region struggles with financial hardship and a number of recent coups across the Sahel. Moreover, Tunisia exists in a strategic position on the Mediterranean that has been coveted since Roman times, and it is important for regional commerce and security that a democratically elected government rather than an unpredictable strongman controls such a vital point. In particular, democracy and stability in Tunisia are important now given the potential for violent spillover from Libya, a country that has itself been ripped apart by violence since the Arab Spring.
Tunisia’s democracy must be supported by the US and other democracies not just for strategic reasons, but also because it has become a new front in the fight between freedom and repression. Russia and China have increasingly sought to increase their foothold in Africa, and a destabilized Tunisia represents a great opportunity for them. The failure of its government would also represent the failure of Islamist parties, in this case, the Ennahdha Party, to achieve some of their objectives through peaceful means rather than violent conflict. Ennahdha has embraced cooperation with secularist parties to advance its own agenda and is one of the major opponents of President Saied. If he is able to assert total control over Tunisia, it sends a message to other Islamist groups across the region that participating in democracy is a bad idea and violent conflict is the only means by which their goals can be realized. We have already seen the toll violence has taken on North Africa, and Tunisia should be prevented from falling into the same vortex.