Australia: A New Front in the Pacific
Robert Cole
With China seeking to expand its power in the western Pacific Ocean, its heavy-handed tactics are beginning to alienate major partners in the region. South Korea’s new president, Yoon Suk-yeol, was elected in part on a platform of opposing China and seeking closer relations with the United States. Japanese relations with China have long been troubled by disputes over the Senkaku Islands, an issue that has arguably empowered China hawks in Tokyo such as former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. Even the Philippines, which under President Duterte has pursued closer ties to China, has been repeatedly disappointed by Beijing’s continued aggression in the South China Sea. More dramatic than all of these however has been the souring of Sino-Australian relations over the past year, beginning with Australia's call for an investigation into the origins of covid-19, to which China responded with an unprecedentedly harsh series of trade sanctions.
While the initial spat over covid may have initiated the diplomatic rift, the Australian decision to join the AUKUS submarine acquisition pact with the US and the UK. China accused Canberra of initiating a regional arms race, a charge Australian defense officials have dismissed as ridiculous given the size of China’s own nuclear submarine fleet. More recently, AUKUS announced it would be engaged in hypersonic missile development, only days after China concluded terms for a closer relationship with the Solomon Islands, a country that until recently was one of only a few on Earth to still recognize Taiwan. The terms included permission for Chinese warships to dock and resupply at local ports, a condition that many feared will be the prelude to a permanent Chinese naval base in the Solomons. Given the positioning of the Solomons on Australia’s northeastern flank, this would be a major strategic development for Beijing, and the specter of such a development has only ratcheted up anti-Beijing sentiment in Australia. The Liberal Party, which is facing steep odds in Australia’s upcoming elections, has stoked these fears in order to brand its opponents as pro-China, in a similar vein to some elements of the American conservative movement.
The long-term implications of the rising tensions between Australia and China will likely play out across the western Pacific. Smaller nations like the Solomons and Micronesia will continue to be caught in the middle, and the importance of multilateral organizations like the Quad group will continue to grow given that Australia is economically and militarily massively inferior to China. As such, the US should take steps to bolster the Quad group as a platform for promoting and defending democracy in Asia by incorporating more key players such as South Korea and New Zealand in order to create better force projection in an area China has sought to dominate unopposed.