Coup in Sudan: Implications for the Region
Robert Cole
When last I wrote about the ongoing violence in Ethiopia, I mentioned the increased aggression Sudan was exhibiting toward Ethiopia, and the potential connection between this trend and the military’s efforts to justify seizing control of the civilian government. Lo and behold, the military has succeeded. On October 25, forces loyal to Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan arrested Sudan’s civilian leaders and declared a return to military rule which he justified as an effort to curb political infighting and prevent a civil war.
Strong parallels can be drawn to the situation in Myanmar, as in both cases the respective coups ended a power-sharing agreement between civilian and military officials, with the military assuming power in the name of ending injustices committed by their civilian counterparts. In both cases, the nation was in the process of leaving behind decades of authoritarian rule and attempting to come to terms with the rule of law rather than rule by military force. Such transitions are notoriously difficult to navigate, since those who are the most militarily powerful must give up the most without succumbing to the temptation to seize power. When civilian rule is not deeply rooted, the ability of the armed forces to sweep it aside is much greater than in an established civilian bureaucracy.
That is certainly not due to a lack of effort by the populace. In Sudan, much like in Myanmar, widespread demonstrations demanding a return to civilian rule appeared immediately after the coup. The military’s response to protests demanding a return to the transitional civilian government have been met by the one thing the military seems to appreciate: violence. Reports from the last week include stories of protests being broken up by the use of live rounds, killing several civilian protesters. Ten of thousands have taken to the streets of the capital, Khartoum, to oppose the coup despite the danger, and it is unclear what will happen next.
What is clear however is how this increases the temperature in a volatile region. Nearly all of Sudan’s neighbors are engulfed in their own violent struggles, most notably the increasingly deadly civil war in Ethiopia. If the military is determined to hold onto power and justify their rule, an intervention into that conflict seems like a possible route. Their ongoing disputes with Ethiopia regarding plans for a dam on the Blue Nile, an issue which is deeply concerning to Egypt, a major regional player with its own military government, could prove to be the ignition point.
None of the major world powers have weighed in firmly on one side or the other of the Nile dispute, but if tensions continue to rise, they may find themselves increasingly drawn in as regional powers take sides. The unpredictable nature of governance in Sudan, given that it lies directly between Egypt and Ethiopia, will make the situation all the more difficult to diffuse, particularly if diplomats are unsure of who to recognize as the nation’s representatives at the negotiating table. This substantially increases the likelihood of a misunderstanding or miscalculation that could lead to war. Such a conflict would likely be a human rights disaster, and the international community should do everything in its power to mediate negotiation during this crisis period. World leaders should also do more to aid a democratic transition in Sudan, not just out of a pro-democracy impulse, but also as a means of setting the region on a course toward prosperity and cooperation rather than mistrust and conflict.