Uganda: Violence Shakes Another African Power
Robert Cole
Beginning in June of this year, a wave of violent attacks have ravaged Uganda’s major cities. On November 16, the largest of these attacks took place with a series of suicide bombings near the Ugandan Parliamentary palace wounding dozens. The attacks were claimed by a branch of the Allied Democratic Front (ADF) associated with the Islamic State in Central Africa. The ADF has been active in the Rwenzori border region between Uganda and the DRC for decades, beginning life as opponents to the government of Ugandan president Yoweri Museveni, who has held power since 1986. It has deep ties to black market trade in the border region and has received funding from various foreign opponents of the Ugandan government during its history that have allowed it to remain active. The original ADF was a combination of secular opponents of Museveni and Islamists, but elements within the organization’s leadership have since pledged allegiance to ISIS, likely triggering a schism between opposing ADF factions.
It is this ISIS-aligned faction that conducted the recent series of attacks, given that ISIS leadership has claimed responsibility. These attacks are concerning not only because of the impact they have had on Uganda and its people, but also because they represent a potential expansion of IS presence in East Africa, which until now has largely been confined to Mozambique. The potential for IS to create a more formidable network for training, recruitment, and coordination is extremely concerning as a potential destabilizing threat to the region, which already has multiple ongoing crises. With the rapid collapse of Ethiopia as a stabilizing power in the region as it struggles with a TPLF-led insurgency that now threatens the entire country, there is a significant power vacuum. This has benefitted other Islamist groups like al-Shabaab, a group that controls much of Somalia and was until recently primarily opposed by Ethiopian peacekeeping forces. Uganda is another of the primary troop contributors in the African Union mission in Somalia, so a refocus on internal security could hasten its withdrawal from that conflict, allowing al-Shabaab to strengthen in their absence. This in turn would represent a renewed threat to Somalia’s neighbors in Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as threatening Red Sea trade.
There is also the question of Rwanda’s role in this resurgence of the ADF. Museveni is engaged in a personal feud with Rwandan leader Paul Kagame, which has resulted in Rwandan closing its border with Uganda. Among the accusations made by Museveni is the claim that Rwanda has been supporting ADF to undermine his regime, a claim that has not been verified by independent sources. However, the tensions between the two neighboring strongmen is itself a regional security threat and a clash that groups like the ADF and IS could potentially exploit.
The process for diffusing all of these tensions begins with leaders like Museveni and Kagame. Both have been in power for decades with no sign of letting go, and have become increasingly authoritarian in order to retain their grip on an increasingly dissatisfied populace. Groups like the ADF and IS recruit from populations that are frustrated with the lack of responsiveness from their governments. Uganda for instance made international news in January for the brutal treatment presidential candidate Bobi Wine experienced at the hands of Museveni’s security forces. Stepping aside and allowing a new generation of democratically elected politicians to take charge rather than pursuing paranoid roundups and personal grudge matches would go a long way in improving regional relations and internal politics. Museveni can do much to further his nation, if only he will set aside his own desire for power.