Guinea: Holding Out for… A Military Junta?
Jay Ramesh
Not all heroes wear capes. And the man who claims to be Guinea’s hero, Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, wears a red beret.
On September 5, 2021, Guinean military forces staged a coup and ousted president Alpha Condé. The new military junta cited “poverty and economic corruption” as reasons for the coup, dissolved the constitution, and closed all of Guinea’s borders.
President Condé had amended the Guinean constitution to give himself the ability to run for a third term, and he won his third term in October of 2020. However, tax increases and repression against political protests led to mass unrest throughout the West African country. While Guinea has experienced significant economic growth in the past, little of it has trickled down to the population, leaving millions in poverty.
Colonel Doumbouya, the leader of the coup, is now the second-youngest leader in Africa, a continent that is slowly slipping away from democracy. Although Doumbouya promises a return to democracy and free elections, Guinea’s history leaves many political analysts in doubt about the country’s future. A previous military coup in 2008 failed to carry through with its promises of free elections, leading to soldiers opening fire on protestors and killing over 150 people.
So why does a coup in this tiny country on the coast of Africa matter? One word: Bauxite.
Guinea boasts the world’s largest reserves of Bauxite, a type of rock that contains aluminum deposits and other rare-Earth elements. The day after the coup, aluminum prices hit a 10-year high over global economic fears of a major supply disruption. Colonel Doumbouya and the military junta have faced major international backlash against the coup, both for Doumbouya’s questionable human rights record, and for potential instability in the aluminum market.
The junta has sent mixed signals to the rest of the world. While Doumbouya declared that Guinea’s resources would finally belong “to the people”, mining activity has, at least so far, not experienced any major disruptions, seizures, or nationalizations. However, military juntas are notoriously difficult to predict, and Doumbouya might lead Guinea to holding out against the world for better trade deals.
The country accounts for 22% of the entire globe’s bauxite production, and mining drives 35% of the country’s economy. China especially holds major stakes in the country and its resources: in 2017, China signed a $20 billion dollar deal with Guinea for infrastructure development. Of course, this deal came with strings attached: specifically bauxite concessions. China imports 47% of its Bauxite from Guinea, so Beijing will be anxiously following developments in the small country.
China’s Belt and Road initiative, an ambitious plan to connect China with much of the world through infrastructure, investment, and trade deals, runs through Guinea. As the country seeks to expand its influence throughout the Sahel (a region of Africa just south of the Sahara desert), political instability is the country’s public enemy number one. China seeks to put its foot in the door and open the region up to Chinese influence, but if that door is slammed shut, China may need to look elsewhere for heroes willing to sell it precious Bauxite.