How Senegal Embodies Regional Trends
Robert Cole
In many ways, Senegal is representative of much of West Africa. It is incredibly young, with an average age of less than twenty. It is relatively young as a country as well, at just over sixty years since it gained independence from France. Yet sadly, like many former colonies, it remains unable to escape from its old colonial master’s shadow. France is by far its largest trading partner and source of foreign investment, which means a significant share of domestic businesses, particularly on the corporate level in larger cities like Dakar, are French.
Additionally, its large petrochemical sector, which makes up 13% of all exports, has been seriously impacted by covid, significantly impacting the local economy and decreasing revenues, which are also feeling the impact of decreased overseas remittances, which form upwards of ten percent of GDP. While these statistics may all sound grim, Senegal has long been considered more economically stable and robust than many of its neighbors. As such, it should hardly be surprising that the nations of West Africa and the Sahel would struggle with maintaining stability and a satisfied populace, even if their internal politics were sound and free from corruption.
Unfortunately, this is not the case. Senegal has found itself in the grips of some of the worst domestic violence it has seen in recent years after the arrest of Ousmane Sonko, a popular opposition leader, on charges he and many of his allies claim were invented for political reasons. He is very popular with the younger generation of Senegalese, who form a huge population block, and he is widely seen as the most viable alternative to the sitting president, Macky Sall. Sall faces tremendous popular frustration for his seeming inability to improve the domestic economy. This is doubled by the appearance that he is close to French business interests, which Sonko has staked himself out in opposition to. As such, the protests contain a significant element of economic frustration and a distaste for French hegemony. This is not to obscure the serious concerns over Sall attempting to stay in power beyond his designated term, an issue common in the region, as seen in The Gambia only a few short years ago, which Senegal borders on three sides.
Beyond the immediate impact the protests have on the people of Senegal and their diaspora overseas, why is this movement significant in the global context? First and foremost, the Senegalese frustration with the methods of foreign investment and the power foreign corporations hold over domestic industry should serve as a warning for China and other powers looking to expand into the region. Secondly, despots of all nations on the continent should reconsider running afoul of increasingly politically conscious younger generations, which have begun to flex their influence beginning with the Arab Spring and continuing through protest movements from Sudan to Uganda. Thirdly, significant consideration should be given to developing economies like that of Senegal in the wake of covid. A failure by the international community to offer assistance in recovery will only serve to further destabilize economically vulnerable states and runs the risk of stunting any developmental momentum they may have developed. Finally, it offers democracies, led by the United States, a chance to recalibrate their diplomatic stance in order to advance democracy where it has great potential but remains weak.
Understanding the root causes of Senegalese frustration will allow the democratic community to advocate for democracy in a way that speaks to local needs. It is important however to avoid attaching too much significance to individual local leaders when seeking allies in democracy. Figures such as Aung San Suu Kyi have won international acclaim for paying lip service to democracy, but the international community did not properly understand her motivations or the context in which she operated, leading to a perhaps inevitable disillusionment with how her government behaved. Figures like Sonko make for appealing news stories, but leaders must make sure to properly vet such figures and understand them in the context of wider movements rather than simply trusting that they will end up as perfect democratic saviors.
Senegal is little discussed outside of a regional context. With a little bit of luck, strong international support for domestic growth and democracy, and the continued resolve of its people, perhaps it will lead the way for West African development.