Assessing the War in Afghanistan

Rohan Rajesh

The War in Afghanistan, America’s longest war, has ended. The Taliban have recaptured Kabul (and most of the country) after a stunningly successful offensive. The United States’ new strategy for counterterrorism will likely no longer involve the nation-building projects on the scale of Afghanistan and Iraq and will likely consist of the occasional airstrike or special forces operation. This is because advances in our security and intelligence infrastructure mean that a future attack on the US homeland on the scale of 9/11 is highly unlikely. While there is no doubt that the Taliban takeover is disastrous for Afghans who were invested in the democratic project - particularly for women, minorities, journalists, human rights activists, and former civil servants - the question facing the United States is, did we lose the war? 

The problem with answering that question is also related to the reason we lost - we don’t truly have a full understanding of our goals in Afghanistan. First, the goal was to capture Osama bin Laden and eliminate al-Qaeda safe havens in Afghanistan. However, that necessitated toppling the Taliban government. Soon, the goal shifted towards nation-building and the fostering of a fledgling democracy in a troubled country. In its negotiations with the United States, the Taliban promised it will not provide safe haven to anti-American terrorist groups. Can we trust them? While a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan will probably not return to the absolute hellscape of the 90s, the situation will certainly deteriorate for women, minorities, and anyone who disagrees with their ultraconservative version of Islamic jurisprudence. We may not know if we lost the war until much later. Perhaps it will come in the form of women not being able to laugh publicly or in a devastating rise in jihadi activity in the MENA, southern Asia, or Europe. Based on recent protests that have been crushed by the Taliban, ordinary Afghans, having gained so much in the last two decades in terms of economic development and human rights, will not be willing to completely surrender their freedoms. They may fight back, leading to more violence and insecurity that spurs more refugee crises and terrorist activity. That said, for America specifically, the greatest casualty of the War on Terror is likely our self-confidence. The world’s most powerful military has once again been humbled by a bunch of ragtag guerilla fighters. Even if the worst-case scenario of a Taliban takeover does not materialize, I fear for our willingness to come together and fight the next war when the world needs it, whether it be in Tora Bora or Taiwan.