Rising Temperatures Across the Taiwan Strait
Robert Cole
One of international relations’ most famous tension points is back in the news. Like the Koreas or Israel-Palestine, the conflict between China and Taiwan has become intractable and existential for leaders on both sides. At its core sits the mainland’s assertion that the island nation of Taiwan is an inseparable part of China that must be reunified with the PRC. Taiwan however, backed militarily by the United States and economically thriving, sees little reason to give up its independence and democracy by rejoining the mainland.
Though China’s insistence that Taiwan must be rejoined with the mainland dates back to the formation of the PRC and retreat to the island by the Republic of China’s remaining forces, there has never been a military move to retake Taiwan. This is largely due to US support for Taiwan through legally mandated arms sales at levels “necessary to maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities”. However, as China’s power has grown in recent years, the threat of an invasion has become much more real, with Taiwanese military estimations predicting that China will be capable of an invasion by 2025.
This has been paired with an increase in rhetoric from the PRC in recent weeks, with Chairman Xi reiterating China’s claim to the island in remarks earlier this month. China has also conducted a series of military incursions into Taiwanese airspace recently, running concurrent with aggressive statements made by Chinese officials. In response, the Pentagon has disclosed that American soldiers are on the ground in Taiwan conducting training operations.
More alarming have been reports this week that China has been testing a new hypersonic nuclear missile with an eye on achieving strategic dominance over the US in the South China Sea. The aim according to analysts is to deter US intervention in a future Taiwan conflict. If these missiles prove successful, they would represent a major innovation in arms technology, nullifying existing missile defense systems. Though China has denied conducting these tests, they could represent a serious paradigm shift in global security since they would nullify the deterrent possessed by other nuclear powers that can no longer threaten a fast enough first strike or block an attack.
The Taiwan conflict thus represents one of the most pressing potential nuclear flashpoints globally, and should be carefully handled by the international community. China’s aggressive actions on the issue have also done little to win hearts and minds in Taiwan. Saber-rattling by the PRC has undercut its preferred political candidates on the island and empowered President Tsai Ing-wen’s more stridently anti-mainland faction. While this sort of behavior plays well at home with audiences that wish for China to be respected on the world stage, it has won China little sympathy globally and made the task of reunification with Taiwan much more difficult. If China’s leaders genuinely believe in reunification for any reason beyond the military glory of conquest, they will de-escalate the military situation and take a more reconciliatory approach. The US meanwhile must continue to support Taiwan, not just for the sake of preserving democracy on the island, but also as a sign to China’s neighbors that the US is a viable partner in protecting their sovereignty against Chinese claims. Diplomatically, China would effectively become hegemon over most of East Asia, which would be problematic given its recent track record on democracy and human rights.